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Race 4 QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP 1200m (BM72+)
The speed here is expected to be good, with The Nicconian and Carocapo leading ahead of Prevailing Winds and One Short.
Rebel Knight (6) was a good thing beaten last week. He was held up until about the 75m mark in that run, before producing an eye-catching finish when clear.
He strikes another winnable race here, with good tempo which will suit. An extra 100m and wide draw are both positives.
Expect Pike to find some midfield cover and finish over the top of these for a deserved win.
Carocapo(5) would've been given no chance by his backers in running last start after settling midfield. However, he was able to produce a surprising strong finish to claim victory.
He maps to breeze outside The Nicconian, but if he misses the kick again he'll be back in the field. This will make his task much harder to chase down Rebel Knight.
Settlers Creek (10) put in a nice run first-up, coming from the rear to finish midfield. He maps to settle towards the back of the field again from the wide gate and can run into a placing at nice odds.
The Nicconian (3) has had excuses at both runs this campaign. He maps to lead here and is the one they'll have to catch.
Race 4 Tips
1stRebel Knight
2ndCarocapo
3rdSettlers Creek
4thThe Nicconian
Race 6 ASCEND SALES-JUNGLE DAWN CLASSIC 1400m (Listed)
The speed here is expected to be moderate, with Snowchino being the leader. I think this is a two horse race for the same pair that ran the quinella two weeks ago.
With the inside draw, Beautiful Mind (1) should get the box seat behind the leader and do no work in the run. With even luck, she can get a run up the rails as Snowchino rolls off on turning for home.
Her sprint isn't quite as sharp as Electric Light, so the step-up to 1400m should be in her favour. She also gets a 1kg weight swing on that runner. Look for Beautiful Mind to turn the tables this week.
Electric Light (10) is the clear danger and obvious favourite, following her win in the Jungle Mist two weeks ago.
She'll likely settle last in running off a slow tempo, which will require a big effort. However the 'Wizard' William Pike is riding in great form and can win from anywhere.
Lady Sass (5) was disappointing in her last few runs, but she does have good ability and seems to be suited when running fresh over the shorter distances. She get's that here and I expect her to run a nice race.
Snowchino (2) should be able to lead and control the tempo of the race.
The speed here is expected to be very good, with Wrinkly and Baraki Beats ensuring a fast tempo. Look for Abdicator to have the drop on the pair.
No prizes here for picking Flirtini (6) and you can expect her to be a very popular pick around the country.
She had a brilliant run in the Winterbotton Stakes and was the only horse to make any impression from the rear of the field.
In doing so, she clocked the fastest last 1000, 800, 600, 400 and 200m sectionals of the race.
The rise to 1400m should be no concern and on her sole run over this distance previously, she split Lady Cosmology and Arcadia Queen. The week back-up should also be no concern, as she has handled that previously and run well.
Stageman (8) has been very unlucky at his last two, but his racing pattern does him no favours. He will need luck from back in the field again here, but he does have a good turn of foot when clear.
The Celt (1) was brilliant in the Colonel Reeves, chasing the hot tempo and running second to Flirtini. He will once again get a soft run near the speed and be chasing hard. However, he meets Flirtini 2.5kg worse off for that race, which won't help his cause.
Profit Street (5) was a strong first-up run for Lindsey Smith. He has always shown flashes of ability, but is getting on now being an eight-year-old. He will appreciate the fast run race and be flashing home late.
Race 7 Tips
1stFlirtini
2ndStageman
3rdThe Celt
4thProfit Street
This is just a few of the many Ascot tips available for Saturday's racing in our Tip Market.
Justin has a strong knowledge of WA provincial and metropolitan tracks and thoroughbreds. He limits his focus to this area of racing as his experience has indicated that it is more predictable. Justin's analysis identifies trends in runners and applies speed maps and sectional data to find his winners. He assesses markets and looks for value runners to back.
Race 4 Tips
