Form Guide Lay

21/12/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day

False Favourites

Last week we potted the popular Bam’s On Fire, who suffered a case of the dreaded “second up syndrome” and turned out to be a profitable loser for followers of this column.

This week’s lay selections focus on two runners that have genuine speed map concerns.

One is likely to be trapped deep throughout and the other will need the speed on and a clear passage to get home over the top.

Both appear well under the odds at their current quotes.  

 

Randwick Race 6 #9 Zaniah $3.00

Loves to lead and dictate, however she faces an ugly speed map here from gate 9 with plenty of speed drawn around her.

This is her first try in Sydney Saturday grade and it will not be an easy assignment here, against the more seasoned sprinters.

Her last three starts have been ultra impressive to the eye, winning each by at least a length. However the opposition has been mediocre at best, given she was entered in lowly midweek and country events.

I have her posted three wide no cover or worse, unless she presses on at an unsustainable warp speed. 

Look for her to get carved up in a very high-pressure race. Lay.

 

Flemington Race 8 #2 Sure Knee $2.90

Has been up for a while now this preparation and I prefer a few of the runners who are on the fresher side.

Her racing pattern is also a negative. She'll likely get well back in the field and hope for a genuine tempo, needing plenty of luck to get the right run through or around.

She is now well exposed to the market following the win here at Flemington over the Melbourne Cup carnival and therefore the price is likely to be over-bet by the mugs.

Everyone will tell you Moonee Valley didn’t suit last start, where she overaced. However, she’s still a big risk to do the same here if they drop anchor up front.  

I expect Wetakemanhattan to get control out in the lead in this and prove very hard to run past. Avoid.

To get more top rated selections from Australia's most recognised form analysts and those who fly under the radar go to our best bets tips page.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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