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  • 10:25:49 AEST
  • Saturday, 15 December 2018
Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 8 December 2018

Tagged: Rosehill

Drifter alert

SP profile is based around the premise of analysing a particular runner's historical starting price and the nature of the price lifecycle (i.e. was it hard or soft late in betting). 

It can be an excellent guide for punters and this week we have found two horses that are a fine example of how studying past pricing moves can be used to your advantage.  

 

Rosehill Race 2 #2 Baller $3.00

Has come up very skinny odds as the $3.00 favourite for this 3yo event.

He did win well on the Kensington surface last start, however that track tends to favour certain types and can throw up unexpected results.  

In addition to this, he had the race run to suit after travelling close to speed (in a slowly run race) before sprinting away from them all. 

The SP profile is not great, with him starting at the rank odds of $61 ($41 out to $61) when winning on debut at Kembla after he was obviously expected to do nothing.

Most recently he was also a drifter late in betting from $3.20 to $3.80 hence the market almost always despise him.

The overall historical SP price would suggest he is held in poor regard by the stable and connections. 

Expect a further soften in betting markets late. Avoid. 

 

Ascot Race 8 #15 Arcadia Queen $2.40

Going to pot the Kingston Town favourite here, who looks well under the odds at the current $2.40.

She takes on Group 1 level for the first time here and although she has strung plenty of wins together this prep, there is more to consider.

From an SP profile perspective, she starts short on most occasions however looking at the three starts prior to her last start win, she was a noted drifter in the market on each occasion- $1.90 to $2.20, $1.75 to $2.10 and $1.70 to $1.80.

Whilst this does not suggest she won't win, it does point to the fact she likely represents unders early in betting.

The current price is poison odds and the SP profile historically tells us that she could get out to longer, closer to jump.

Avoid or wait for a better price ($3.00+ is acceptable).

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