28/11/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Two more false favourites were exposed last Saturday, when both The Gauch and The Astrologist went down without troubling the judge at Ballarat.

That made it 11 successful lays from our past 13 selections and we are keen to keep the good run going. 

This week’s edition of Lays of the Day focuses on two runners that face a number of significant challenges.

Both horses tackle fields that are stacked with ability, and the short quotes for each look severely under the odds.

I expect a market drift for both. Lay.

 

Moonee Valley Race 1 #5 Seb Song $2.60

For a horse that is yet to break his maiden status, he strikes a strong three-year-old event with plenty of chances.

Both career starts have been sound having placed second at each, however they have been at a level well below this BM70 event.

Whilst many of these horses are on debut at Moonee Valley, the first try at this track is always a risk where horses often display a dislike for the tight turns.  

I expect the bigger model players to take him on late in betting and for $3.00+ to be widely available come start time. Lay.

 

Rosehill Race 2 #2 Almania $2.70

Is a highly regarded import who is yet to prove his worth in Australia.

He did run home fairly at Flemington last start, after getting well back in the run and grinding home late.

I believe the quality of his opposition last time out was poor and although some may suggest the run was sound, it was against nothing of note.

He arrives back in Sydney to take on some local hard heads, who should be very hard to beat and have been racing well.

His natural profile is to get well back and that is always a risk. Granted the race does appear to have some speed engaged, however I am against most speed maps here and believe it may only be run at a moderate tempo.

If the speed slackens throughout at any stage, he will have a near impossible task to get past them late. Avoid.