Last week we managed to have two hot-pots beaten, when both La Mexicana and Kenya failed to trouble to judge on the Sandown feature race day.
We hope to continue the good form this week, with two selections below that both appear well under the odds on the Ballarat card.
I expect each of these horses to face challenging speed maps and to drift in the market as we approach start time.
Ballarat Race 1 #2 The Gauch $2.90
The early market loves the Maher/Eustace factor and the Jye McNeil booking, however I’m not convinced this runner should be trading as short as $2.90.
He looked to have every possible chance at his past two starts when blessed in the run, and still could not get the job done.
Given a fast run race here and more pressure throughout, I expect him to be found out.
This looks a deep race, with some good quality runners engaged for the rare Ballarat stand-alone Saturday meeting.
Expect the likes of Rock Prophet and Hidden Legend to provide stiff competition and put the favourite under plenty of pressure.
Expect a market drift close to start time. Avoid.
Ballarat Race 9 #3 The Astrologist $2.30
Has come up a very short quote for a horse launching from sticky gate (barrier 9) in what appears a deep race.
There is a high risk of him being either cast deep, or doing a tonne of work trapped on the outside of this field.
The last start effort at Flemington was good when finishing 2 of 13 in Listed grade, however he had favours and was able to race up close to the speed and position himself in an ideal striking spot.
I highly doubt he will be presented with that opportunity again here.
He will be well found due to the Craig Williams booking and given the challenging speed map, I’d much prefer to oppose at the current price. Lay.
