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14/11/20 Horse Racing Tips Sandown Cup & Guineas

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Spring Finale

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Tagged: Horse Racing Tips, James Beeson

Zipping Classic day represents the end of Melbourne's Spring Carnival and presents punters with a number of excellent betting opportunities.

Many Flemington Cup week runners are backing up to run here, each posing interesting propositions for punters.

In the Sandown Guineas, I am against the red-hot favourite and believe after hard racing he could be over the top now. 

Whilst in the Sandown Cup, I am with a talented mare who will appreciate dropping way down in grade from a high quality Melbourne Cup.

 

Track Conditions

The Sandown Hillside track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit.

Fine conditions are expected for the remainder of the week and on race day. 

The Hillside track generally races fair, however a close watch is advised in early races to identify any bias or fast lanes. 

 

Sandown Race 6 - Sandown Guineas 1600m (G2)

The Map Speed Map

The speed appears moderate to fast here, with Captain Canuck (5) the most likely to charge forward and look to control the race from out in front.

Expect Talamo (8) and Horrifying (6) will both be prominent in the first half of the field. 

I expect them to roll along at a genuine clip, which should give most running positions their chance. 

 

The Favourite

Aysar ($1.75) only just missed on Derby day at Flemington, when he was out-bobbed by the smart Crosshaven.

No doubt he is very smart, however it's unlikely this race was ever on the initial agenda and appears a clear afterthought.

I am inclined to be against him here especially from a price angle, where the $1.75 looks poison. 

This is a thin race, hence you must include him in your top 3. However after a brutal battle last start, I'd avoid launching into him as a win bet. 

Aysar

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

Although soft in early betting ($10 out to $17), I'm happy to be with Captain Canuck who won well at Moonee Valley last start and maps well here to lead.

He should give a great kick at the end and given any cheap sectionals, could pinch it. Big odds to my eye. 

Sweet Reply brings different form and was hard in the market last start ($6.00 into $5.00), before being held up to finish 4 of 12 at Flemington.

Any support in betting close to start time would indicate she goes very close.  

Aysar must be included on quality alone, following outstanding efforts to place second in both the Caulfield Guineas and Carbine Club Stakes.

The slight knock is that he may be over the top now, after being set for two big features at his past two starts.   

Allibor is lightly raced and could have more upside than most of these. His last start effort when running on to finished midfield in stakes grade, suggests he is up to this level.   

 

1st  Captain Canuck

2nd  Sweet Reply

3rd  Aysar

4th  Allibor

 

Sandown Race 7 - Sandown Cup 3200m (Listed)

The Map

There doesn't look to be much early speed engaged here, and I expect them to find their running positions early and attempt to crawl over the testing 3200m journey.

Navel Warfare (7) and Monmouth (5) are the two most likely to race on-speed.

Expect Midterm (1) to use his inside draw to punch up along the rail and hold a position just in behind the leaders.  

 

The Favourite 

Sin To Win ($3.90) ran home strongly at Flemington over 2800m last start, and has winning form out to this distance.

His typical pattern is to get back in the field and run on and if the speed did go on at any stage, expect him to be the most likely to come home over the top.

There is a query as to if this race will be run at a fast enough pace to suit him, where if they crawl we may not see his customary big finish.   

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

Miami Bound won well at Moonee Valley two back, before being outclassed (14 of 23) in the Melbourne Cup at her latest run. This is a big step down in grade and I expect her to be well suited here. Goes on top. 

Miami Bound

Carif has been grinding away well over shorter trips, and stepping up to 3200m now appears perfect. He should keep on coming all the way down the straight. 

Etah James is a genuine stayer who is proven over 3200m, having won last year's Sydney Cup.

He is from the shrewd Maher/Eustace yard who know how to place them to perfection, and I suspect this has been on the agenda to round out his preparation for some time. Watch for a late market push. 

Naval Warfare comes up big odds ($14) and could control it here, from out in front for a long way. If they allow him to go at a snail pace, expect him to kick and is some chance of holding on. 

 

1st  Miami Bound

2nd  Carif

3rd  Etah James

4th  Naval Warfare 

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Nov 12, 2020 02:11 PM
by James Beeson
X@JimmyBeeson4

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