Form Guide Lay

Melbourne Cup Day: horse racing Lays of the Day

Speed Map Casualties on Cup Day

We had two false favourites beat on Derby Day, with Bivouac ($3.20) and Arcadia Queen ($2.90) coming unstuck after being weighed down by their short prices.  

We now turn our attention to Melbourne Cup day and there are two runners who appear well under the odds at key venues Flemington and Randwick.

Both horses have run-on profiles, which is a racing pattern that is likely to work against them considering their respective races lack speed.

The speed map challenges appear significant and I expect a market drift for each runner as we approach start time.  

 

Flemington Race 2 #7 Phaistos $3.30

Strikes a good field here first-up and will need to be at his best to be winning this.

He is likely to get back in the field and in a race that appears to lack tempo, those in the first few should hold an advantage.

Several of his opposition have plenty of Group and Listed race experience and although this is only at benchmark 90, he does appear to lack a touch of class.

He does have a good fresh record, with two wins from two attempts. However with the track slightly rain affected and well worn, this could be a very testing 1400m where fitness is the key.

With the speed map against him and the good quality field, I would much prefer to oppose at the current price. Lay.

 

Randwick Race 1 #4 Starla $3.00

Is likely to be ridden off-speed in a very slowly run race, which is usually a recipe for disaster.

She always seems to find trouble in the run and her get back profile is more prone to needing luck in running.

The draw in gate 7 looks very sticky, with Spaceboy a big chance to slow them on settling and leave a few posted wide.

I must concede she did encounter traffic last start. However, that was in restricted fillies and mares grade at Kembla Grange and she is now forced to take on the boys in town. 

Taking short odds about a maiden galloper is never appetising, however this looks particularly poisonous. Avoid.  

Our Tip Market has a page dedicated to the big race on Tuesday, with every punter and expert form analyst's Melbourne Cup tips ranked in order of the tipster's profitability. Check it out.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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