9/11/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day

We dodged more bullets on Cup Day, after two short-priced runners succumbed to the false favourite tag. 

We now move onto Stakes day where we have identified two more banana skins, which look set to slip punters up at their current quotes.

Both look very well found and significantly over-bet at this stage.

Expect a market drift for each of them approaching start time, as the professional model players identify value elsewhere. Lay.   

 

Flemington Race 4 #5 True Self $2.20

Has come up poison odds at $2.20 in a race with plenty of depth. 

Most have locked onto the Geelong Cup form, where he finished second to Melbourne Cup runner-up Prince Of Arran.

That was a completely different set-up and trying to line up Melbourne Cup form is a dangerous exercise, considering how unique the race factors are.

This event looks to lack speed and True Self is likely to be racing in the second half of the field.

From there, it could prove difficult to get past the leading division when they sprint hard off a track gallop tempo. 

No doubt he could just be the best horse in the race, but I feel he is significantly unsuited here and at the price should be avoided at all costs.

Expect a market drift as we approach start time. Lay. 

 

Rosehill Race 1 #4 Lucicello $2.05

The famous “Waller factor” appears to be far too over-bet with this runner!

A recent trial was only fair when she was held together in a bunched finish across the line. With no strong record first-up (2:0-0-1), I would much prefer to oppose her at the poison $2.05.

If she was showing any form of ability, the high profile ownership group would have demanded a trip to Melbourne. Staying in Sydney for this lowly restricted grade event screams "she isn’t anything special". 

Her last victory was in July at this track, in a race that has produced absolutely nothing since. It looks a very weak form-line.

The speed map is also a deep concern, where she is likely to get well back in what looks only a moderately run race.

There are some very well seasoned older mares in this race and they are the ones punters should focus on. Lay. 

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