Melody Belle

9/11/19 Flemington tips and best bets: Mackinnon Stakes

High Quality Feature Race

Distance 2000m
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Soft 5 
Prizemoney $2,000,000
Class WFA 
2018 winner Trap For Fools ($26)

A number of very classy runners are engaged in this year's Mackinnon Stakes, in what shapes as an interesting battle of high quality form lines. Key runners have come via the Cox Plate (2040m), Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) and the Kennedy Cantala (1600m).

Speed will play a crucial role and with a moderate tempo likely, I expect the milers and staying types to both have their chance. 

I am with the gun Kiwi mare who could not have been more impressive when winning on Derby Day. 

 

Race Track Flemington Track Traits

The Flemington surface is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail out 6m the entire circuit. Rain is predicted for the remainder of the week in Melbourne.

With the rail only out 6m and a heavily used surface, look for riders to race wider in search of the less worn ground. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias. 

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

Race favourite Melody Belle has come in for support in early betting, to now trade at $3.70 from $4.00 openers.

There's been a slight drift for Humidor, who is out to $16 from $13.

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

#1 Hartnell $9.00

Has put in good runs all prep, however he's fast becoming a "non-winner" in his old age (9yo).

The last start Caulfield Cup effort was sound, when he finished 7 of 18 and only beaten 3 lengths after being held up. 

Deep in the prep now, I have a few ahead of him here and expect him to once again find a number of others too strong. Avoid. 

  

#3 Humidor $13 > $16

Was well supported to win the Moonee Valley Cup last start, where a few good judges were keen to back him. He disappointed however, finishing 4 of 8. 

The recent run did have some merit, as he got back and was caught wide off a tempo that was unsuitable.

I would love to see another push in betting and if that did come, it may pay to follow. 

Humidor

 

#4 Debt Agent $19

Was part of the blanket finish in the Crystal Mile, where he finished 7 of 11. The form from that race has not stacked up, with Best Of Days and Chief Ironside both well beaten since. 

I suspect these are a touch too classy for him and would much prefer others. Avoid. 

 

#6 Kluger $16

Finished well back (13 of 14) in a hot Cox Plate last start and will certainly find this easier. 

He has sound second-up form (6:2-1-0) and was only 1.5 lengths off Winx in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes last preparation.

The Japanese are in white hot form this Spring and the current $16 appears value. Must include. 

 

#8 Kings Will Dream $10

Won the Turnbull Stakes two starts back before being slightly disappointing in the Cox Plate at his latest, when he finished 6 of 14.

The Turnbull win was very flattering to my eye, when everything went right.

I feel he is a good risk here against a very hot field. No. 

KWD

 

#11 Fifty Stars $13 

Just missed in the Kennedy Cantala last start, where he dived back to the inside and was charging through the line late.

The step up to 2000m now is perfect and with any form of tempo in the race, he should threaten late again. 

Just needs a touch of luck from the draw in gate 11 to be a major player in the race. Yes. 

 

#12 Night's Watch $17

Jumped favourite ($7) in the Kennedy Cantala, before over-racing and being held up in what could be best classified as a forget run. 

He should improve considerably here given more luck and the current $19 appears good value.

Can bounce back to winning form. 

NW

 

#13 Cape Of Good Hope $17

Was only fair last time out in the Cox Plate, when grinding away to finish 10 of 14.

I'm happy to be a touch forgiving of the last start effort and go off the excellent win in the Caulfield Stakes two back.

He gets speed map favours here from gate 2 and is another who will appreciate a strong tempo. Leading chance. 

 

#14 Magic Wand $6.50 

Had excuses in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, when she was held up before chasing hard to finish 10 of 24.

It is an interesting profile backing up here over 2000m, however the Coolmore ownership group are no mugs.

The training performance will be lauded if successful and I am very wary. Can win. 

 

#15 Melody Belle $4.00 > $3.70 

Could not have been more impressive when winning the Empire Rose last week, when she was simply breathtaking in the way she rounded them up.

Slight concern she needs to peak up again here in what appears a much deeper race, however she has done so in the past.

Seeing is believing and I have to be with her. Goes on top. 

 

#16 Aristia $21

Was very good last time in the Empire Rose. Although she was no match for Melody Belle, she showed that she's back to top form.

The margin was only 1.5 lengths last start, but the winner looked far superior.

It would be difficult to turn the tables here. Avoid. 

 

Of The Others

#10 So Si Bon although well beaten by the favourite last start, he maps well from gate 7 and will not spend a penny in the run.

He generally has a big run in him and is not the worst $26 chance going around. 

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st  Melody Belle 

2nd  Cape Of Good Hope  

3rd  Kluger

4th  Nigh'ts Watch 

We've display everyone who places a Melbourne tip on Saturday on our Flemington tips page in order of their profitability. The page includes free tips and packaged tips for sale. 

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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