Form Guide Lay

30/11/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day

Fresh is best

Two more false favourites were found out last week, as we successfully warned punters about the poisonous prices on offer for Lucicello and Bam's On Fire.

We're ready to go again this week.

At this time of year, many stables persist with long preparations in the hope of capturing more prizemoney. 

Horses which are earlier in their preparation and less stale often hold a significant advantage. Despite some of these runners appearing to lack class, their “fresh” status can carry them a long way. 

Avoid those who are deep into a preparation and appear as though they've already run their “Grand Final” target race. 

The below selections fall into this bucket. 

 

Ascot Race 8 #1 Trekking $2.80

Looks a great risk, for a horse that will be getting well back in the field on a track that could play leaderish.

There is no denying his ability and Everest form is enormous when lined up against this lesser quality field, however the race shape is not ideal on this occasion.

He will go back from the inside draw in barrier 4 and is at risk of being strung up along the inside or being forced to come around them all to win.

The long campaign also must be questioned and this appears a classic “afterthought” by the team at Godolphin, which rarely ends well.

Look for him to be charging late when the race is already won, after encountering traffic at vital stages. 

There's no doubt he is the best horse in the race, however the speed map screams that he is not suited in this. Lay. 

 

Rosehill Race 8 #7 Handle The Truth $2.90

Has already had his “Grand Final” in the Kosciusko where he did win well. 

The stable are clearly exhibiting greed now and pushing on for more stakes money, when the horse should be spelling. 

I expect the build up to the Kosciusko would have been intense, with the horse not only engaged in the disclosed trials but also well worked in track gallops.

This race has plenty of speed and given his close-to-speed racing profile, they'll want to be up there in the firing line again which may not suit. 

With healthy stakes money available, racing on is always hard to resist. However, on this occasion the horse is a big chance to have gone stale. Avoid.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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