The Ascot Carnival continues this week with the running of our feature sprint, the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes.
With a perfect day of 30 degrees on the cards, the track will be rated a Good 4.
The rail is out 4 metres the entire circuit and with easterly winds predicted, I'm looking for runners who settle handy in the run. Making up ground could prove difficult.
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Race 4 FURPHY HANDICAP 1800m (BM66+)
The speed here is expected to be good. Expect Sophie's Song and Demi Go Round to lead, with Locomotive, Son Of Bacchus and Sharpbob sitting handy.
Son Of Bacchus (9) looked to be travelling as the winner at the bend last start, before running home fairly. They ran good time in that race and it looks a reliable form reference for this. He maps for an identical run just behind the speed.
Winkers go on for this and if he runs a strong 1800m, which I think he can, then he'll be giving this a fair shake at the each way price.
Royal Command (1) had a big win last start when getting home in the last stride. Drops in grade here and only goes up half a kilo after the claim. He maps to settle a long way off them, but does have an explosive turn of foot. Those who back the favourite will have their heart in their mouth for the length of straight.
Sophie's Song (7) comes from the same race as Son Of Bacchus. She's the likely leader here and if she can kick off the bend and run out the 1800m, she will take some catching.
Prince Turbo (8) has rediscovered his best form in his last two starts. He'll need luck from the widest draw, but should end up midfield three wide with cover and can't be discounted.
Race 4 Tips
1stSon Of Bacchus
2ndRoyal Command
3rdSophie's Song
4thPrince Turbo
Race 6 TABTOUCH-WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES FINAL 1400m
I expect the speed to be good here. Lacevinsky should find the front, with Dickoletto, Sir Mambo and Zephyr Queen sitting handy. Most of these horses clashed last start and I'm with one that is looking to turn the tables.
Lacevinksy (8) has a high cruising speed, which can leave him vulnerable over the last 50m of each race. Expect them to adopt the same tactics as last start, with Carberry likely to try and kick away on the bend. Look for him to catch them napping on turning for home and hang on over the concluding stages.
Dickoletto (2) has put in two nice runs this prep and maps to box seat here again. He seems to be one-paced, however should be close at the finish.
Not To Be Mist (3) was a very strong winner last start, but was the big loser at the barrier draw. He maps to be last and even though this horse has undeniable talent, I can't see him winning from there. Pike will have him storming home late, but it will likely be too late.
Zephyr Queen (6) can be a hard horse to catch. She does prefer chasing a fast tempo and should get the suck run behind the speed. It would be no surprise to see her figure in the finish.
Race 6 Tips
1stLacevinsky
2ndDickoletto
3rdNot To Be Mist
4thZephyr Queen
Race 7 TABTOUCH-COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL: THE ROAD TO ASCOT 1200m
Expect the speed to be good here with M'lady coming across from the wide draw and the Fernie runners all looking to position handy. I think we have three logical top picks here.
M'lady (2)has been flying at Geraldton this preparation, with three strong wins from as many starts. She is the pace in the race, so despite the wide draw I think she can cross without burning too much energy and prove hard to run down. If the horse had drawn a better gate, I think you'd be looking at a much shorter price.
Concrete Madame (8) has been flying since finally knocking off her maiden. She gets a pull in the weights from stablemate Mr Genoa and will settle in front of him in running. The services of Damian Lane are a plus.
Mr Genoa (1) must carry the impost of 62kg, but is drawn to get a soft run and has Willy Pike to steer. He will need some luck from the rails, but can finish over the top of them.
Wild Fusion (6) has always shown ability and surprised a few people with a strong win in the Albany heat. He likes chasing a strong tempo and should get a good spot midfield with cover. Damien Oliver is a key booking and he can run a race.
Race 7 Tips
1stM'lady
2ndConcrete Madame
3rdMr Genoa
4thWild Fusion
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Justin has a strong knowledge of WA provincial and metropolitan tracks and thoroughbreds. He limits his focus to this area of racing as his experience has indicated that it is more predictable. Justin's analysis identifies trends in runners and applies speed maps and sectional data to find his winners. He assesses markets and looks for value runners to back.
Race 4 Tips
