Moonee Valley Tips: Best Bets for 1 December 2018

Saturday racing returns to Moonee Valley for the first time following the heroics of Winx's Cox Plate day.

Whilst the quality is down some degree, there are still a number of high-profile horses entered which are well known to punters.

This should make for an interesting day in what looks to be largely wide open betting affairs, where late market moves will certainly add confidence when determining your selections.   

 

Race 6 Spendthrift Australia Fillies and Mares Handicap (BM 84) 1000m

They will go warp speed here over the short course, with plenty of early pace engaged.

Expect Fill The Flute (7) and Eurack (6) to carve across from outside draws and take a position close to speed.

This will force both Airino (10) and Honey Esprit (11) to hunt up along the inside in an effort to hold them all out. 

Grey Shadow (3) looks the one who will get speed map favours and can tuck in behind the expected fast tempo, before presenting late over the final 50m to run home over the top.

She was good last start at Cranbourne at Listed level, when 5 of 11 and only beaten 2.4 lengths by a few smart ones.

Will appreciate a significant drop in grade and is clear top pick.

Eurack (6) was racing well prior to the her start Flemington straight failure, and can easily bounce back to winning form from a forward position.

The on-speed brigade includes Honey Esprit (11) and Belwazi (5), who are both first-up and ultra fresh for this. They are an excellent chance to keep kicking and be in the finish. 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Grey Shadow

2^nd  Eurack

3^rd  Honey Esprit

4^th  Belwazi

 

Race 7 Independent Turf Services (Open) Handicap 1000m

Some better quality types line-up here for another 1000m dash, with most of the leading chances in betting preferring to sit off-speed and run on.

These include Thermal Current (1) and Ken's Dream (2), who are both likely to take up midfield positions before angling out in the straight.

They won't want to be too far off the leaders as there looks to be a distinct lack of speed in the race, making the first half of the field very tough to get past. 

Considering the tempo, you would have to consider Our Luca (5) a decent chance if he can find the front and control it.

He has won his past two here at the Valley and will have plenty of residual fitness after dropping back from the 1200m last start.

Firm in early betting ($7 into $6) also adds confidence. 

Invincible Al (4) is the other runner hard in the market and does bring stakes level form from last start, when a close up 5 of 13 in the Listed Doveton Stakes at Sandown.

He will get back and storm late, with a slight question mark as to whether he gets the required speed up front to run home hard. 

Best of the rest is Holy Blade (3) who has a touch of class with his last three starts being at stakes level, and can find cover just in behind the speed. 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Our Luca

2^nd  Kens Dream

3^rd  Invincible Al

4^th  Holy Blade

 

Race 8 Adapt Australia (BM 90) 2040m

The Cox Plate distance always provides an intriguing contest and this field should give us just that.

Speed looks only even, with Our Big Mike (3) the one most likely to take up the running.  

This could turn into a muddling run affair and as such, it may be an advantage to be midfield or better in the run.

Al Galayel (7) has been fancied in betting all the way through this prep and has run well against quality opposition.

He will hunt up from gate 6 to be midfield and from there is certainly close enough to strike, even if the speed is steady.

Last start, he just missed at Flemington over 1800m and he will be rock hard fit for this.  

The Danny O'Brien stable are flying at the moment and have Lycurgus (2) entered here following two good runs this prep.

Stretching out in distance suits and he is now ready to peak third-up.

Best of the rest is Top Prospect (8) who has the Weir polish and should be treated warily, especially if hard in the market late in betting.

He can go right on with it following the last start Flemington win, where he beat some of the leading hopes here. 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Al Galayel

2^nd  Lycurgus

3^rd  Top Prospect

4^th  Our Big Mike

 

Race 9  Woodside Park Stud Handicap (BM 78) 1200m

Speed looks very strong for this sprint with many of the field possessing a natural on-pace profile.

Expect Like To Think So (2), Sirrius Suspect (5), Easy Beast (10) and Sherrif John Stone (1) to all push forward, creating a warp speed tempo. 

Strong run-on profile Demolition (3) will get the tempo to suit and rider Craig Williams can snag back and watch the leaders cut at each other from a stalking position.

With any luck, he simply peels to the middle of the track and swamps them all late. 

Others who can take advantage of a strong speed include Prezado (7) and Exceltara (15), both drawn to get back to midfield postions and have ecconomical runs.

Prezado (7) has always had a big boom on him, following some slashing runs throughout his career.

Whilst he may appear out of form going off a last start 8 of 10 at this track, he has found a race to suit with speed map favours and a drop in grade. 

Magnesium Rose (14) is the best of the rest and with speed up front ,can overcome a wide draw and tuck in behind for a favourable run throughout. 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Demolition

2^nd  Prezado

3^rd  Exceltara

4^th  Magnesium Rose

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