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  • Tuesday, 20 August 2019
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Melbourne Cup Tips 2018: A brutally honest assessment of your horse


Sorting out the contenders from the pretenders

You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2018 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning. 

To cut through the noise and get to the gist, we have rated each runner and provided you with a brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.

Runners are listed in order of their Rated Odds.

 

22. Youngstar

Youngster
Rated Odds $8
Current Odds $18

She was given no chance in the Caulfield Cup after a pretty average ride from a good barrier.

Will relish the 3200m and has shown a liking for Flemington, where she ran within a length of Winx in the Turnbull over 2000m.

Her last 400m of that race was an impressive +9.9 lengths above benchmark. 

The forecast for rain and the perfect draw in barrier eight promotes her to top pick!

#AussieAussieAussie

 

11. Yucatan

Yucatan
Rated Odds $8
Current Odds $5.50

Off the back of an impressive win in the Herbert Power, he was well supported in all-in markets and rightly so.

Barrier 23 is awkward but you'd expect J Mac to find cover beyond mid-field and with clean air in the straight, he'll be flying at them late.

If he had strong Slow-Heavy form, he'd be the top pick.

#HorrorDraw

 

3. Magic Circle

Magic Circle
Rated Odds $10
Current Odds $10

Won the G3 Henry II Stakes over 3264m by 6 lengths and absolutely loves the sting out of the ground.

Connections couldn't be more confident of his chances and if the rain comes he could start favourite.

#WetWetWet

 

23. Cross Counter

Cross Counter
Rated Odds $10
Current Odds $11

Has a similar profile to last year's Cup winner Rekindling.

Kerrin McEvoy gets off the well-fancied Youngster to take this ride in what is a huge push for the English galloper.

The barrier draw is awful and the distance is a query.  

#Dejavu

 

9. Marmelo

Marmelo
Rated Odds $10
Current Odds $17

Was sent out as the favourite in last year's Cup and failed to deliver off an unsuitable tempo.

Has drawn better in barrier nine this time around and with connections opting for a different route this year, he'll be first-up into the race that  stops the world. 

In a huge push for his chances, Sydney Premiership winning jockey, Hugh Bowman, retains the ride from last year.

Huge chance and over the odds.

#Revenge

 

2. The Cliffsofmoher

The Cliffsofmoher
Rated Odds $13
Current Odds $13

Untried at the 3200m but will relish a Soft track if the rain comes.

Flew at them late in the Caulfield Cup and any horse from team Williams must be respected.

Drawn well and should be added to all trifectas and first fours.

#LivingOnTheEdge

 

1. Best Solution

Best Solution
Rated Odds $13
Current Odds $13

The Caulfield Cup winner who has to carry the top-weight and is yet to be tried at 3200m.

Has the ability to make two bursts in a race which is a significant attribute.

Drawn perfectly in barrier six and with a strong Soft track record, he'll look the winner for a long while.

#PleaseRain

 

17. A Prince Of Arran

A Prince Of Arran
Rated Odds $17
Current Odds $17

Drops in weight and can run in the top 10.

A winner over 3200m in Dubai, but he has shown a dislike for Soft tracks. 

If the surface were to be a Good 4 or better, he would be rated higher.

However, with up to 20mm of rain forecast in the lead up to the race, he is unlikely to get conditions to suit. 

#PrinceorPauper

 

5. Muntahaa

Muntahaa
Rated Odds $21
Current Odds $11

He was nearly lapped by Best Solution in the G2 Princess Wales at Newmarket over 2400m.

He went on to frank that form in winning the G1 Ebor Handicap in convincing style.

Doesn't go a yard on the Soft tracks and hasn't won beyond 2816m. No thanks.

#Imposter

 

10. Avilius

Avilius
Rated Odds $21
Current Odds $13

Won the Bart Cumings in good time but couldn't get anywhere near them in the Cox Plate.

Drawn well and if he's afforded an easy run in transit, there is no doubt he'll finish top 10.

#Myth

 

6. Sound Check

Sound Check
Rated Odds $51
Current Odds $51

Has won over 3200m at Group 2 level, which is a huge plus.

The barrier draw along with a poor Caulfield Cup run are both negatives.

He ran 0.3-lengths behind Best Solution two starts back. 

The quote of $51 is fair and there is little doubt he'll run in the top 10. 

#BlowOut

 

24. Rostropovich

Rostropovich
Rated Odds $51
Current Odds $27

Went awful at weight-for-age in the Cox Plate and will no doubt improve off that.

However, he would need to improve 10 lengths to be in the finish, and that won't be happening.

#Who?

 

21. Runaway

Runaway
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $51

Will go forward and ensure the race is run at true tempo.

If they all fall over behind him, he'll win.

That's his only chance. 

#GoAway

 

7. Who Shot Thebarman

Who Shot Thebarman
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $67

We all have a mate who loves throwing a pineapple at the Chirs Waller trained runner.

Cute name, but that doesn't win you a Melbourne Cup. 

#Retire

 

8. Ace High

Ace High
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $101

If the rain comes, this horse could drown! If it doesn't, the $101 quote is overs. 

He led them up in the Caulfield Cup, which was a crazy decision given the horse has produced his best when ridden off the speed. 

The track was a Soft 6 which didn't help, but he'll need floaties to get around on a Soft track.

You could only imagine how bad he'd perform on a Heavy. 

#TwoFace

 

18. Nakeeta

Nakeeta
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $101

Ran a great race in 2017, but has failed to recapture that form this season. No!

#GiveMeMyNakeetaBackMack

 

16. Ventura Storm

Ventura Storm
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $34

Was gelded before his last run, which was his first victory in 17 starts on Australian soil.

The Moonee Valley Cup field was full of pretenders, and he will fly that flag well here.

#Pretender

 

15. Venguer Masque

Vangeur Masque
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $67

Will ping from the gates and settle in the top two from the soft draw.

He's more likely to be going backward at the 400m mark than forward.

#Next

 

13. Finche

Finche
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $27

Ran exactly how you'd expect a horse called "Finche" would run in the Geelong Cup. 

He looked the winner the entire run, but was going up and down like a cork in water the entire straight. 

His best effort will result in a top 10 finish, but his best is a year away.

#Meh

 

4. Chestnut Coat

Chestnut Coat
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $41

Nothing went right in the Caulfield Cup, and the Japanese have produced a Melbourne Cup winner in the past.

However, they have been well off the mark in recent years, and that looks to be the case again.

#Lift

 

14. Red Cardinal

Red Cardinal
Rated Odds $101
Current Odds $31

Ran 11th in last year's Cup, but isn't going well enough this preparation.

#Rough

 

12. Auvray

Auvray
Rated Odds $501
Current Odds $101

Has no hope of fighting out the finish.

Connections will no doubt enjoy a day out at Flemington.

#SlowerThanSlow

 

19. Sir Charles Road

Sir Charles Road
Rated Odds $501
Current Odds $126

Couldn't win a Bendigo Cup on a suitable surface, so there is no chance he'll win a Melbourne Cup.

#GiveUsASpell

 

20. Zacada

Zacada
Rated Odds $1,001
Current Odds $201

You could run this race a thousand times over, and this Kiwi wouldn't go close to winning.

There is a chance he won't beat the ambulance home.

#Millions

 

Top Selections

1st - Youngstar $18

2nd - Magic Circle $11

3rd - Cross Counter $11


All of Australia's top racing experts in the media, and professional punters have posted their Cup tips in our dedicated Melbourne Cup Tips market, which includes tips from punters and Australia's racing media who have posted a Cup selection.

Each tipster has validated profit statistics on display for you to view before you follow.

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