Nov 03, 2018 08:20 AM
Author: Mike Steward
Differentiating smart money from other betting moves
Over two years ago we developed a method to identify smart money from early moves in betting markets.
Our motivation for this project came from discussions with successful pro punters. Almost every pro we spoke to confessed that their first opportunity to grab odds that are over true value was in the few hours after the market opened.
These pro punters are making assumptions about weather, track conditions and other race day variables to form their own markets before the bookies publish there own. When bookmakers post their opening odds, the pros are waiting to capitalise, identifying horses on their tip sheet whose odds represent value.
Identifying smart bets
Having the opportunity to speak and mix with pro punters over the years has allowed us to profile their betting behaviour. The characteristics of how and when they bet are very different to other large early bets which also move prices lower.
The characteristics of the odds movement for a sharp pro punter over the 24 hours after markets open, looks very different.
Our approach has been tuned over the past 30 months to identify the smart bets, and we're proud of the results it continues to produce.
Last Saturday saw yet another profitable day for punters following our free early market mover tips with 3 from 3 winners saluting at Moonee Valley and 2 from 3 getting the chocolates at Randwick.
Punters taking the fixed odds available when we posted our tips from early market movers report had a very good Cox Plate day. An even stake on each of the six tips made punters 380% profit on turnover equating to $2,280 cash profit from $100 win bets.
Punters can receive our tips from early market movers by joining theGreatTipOff.com. After joining our site you will receive our weekly newsletter which includes the early market movers report amongst other great racing articles.