1/12/18 Rosehill Tips: best bets and previews
Feature race previews & tips
AAPA drenched Rosehill Gardens plays host to the Group 3 Festival Stakes this Saturday.
With 58mm of rain falling on Wednesday, the track is currently rated a Heavy 8.
Fine weather is forecast for the remainder of the week however, which should see the track improve into the Soft 6 range.
The rail is out 3m the entire circuit and with this being the fifth consecutive Saturday meeting at the track, it's likely runners will be searching for better ground four to five lanes off the rail.
Race 6 Festival Stakes (Group 3) 1500m
Speed Map Analysis
There is moderate pace engaged in this race, with Monsieur Sisu (11) and Kinsguard (4) to lead them up.
Goodfella (10) will need to spear across from the wide barrier, in order to slot in just behind the leaders.
This will allow Pecans (6) and Chamois Road (7) to tag him across and take up a nice position in the run.
Well-fancied runners My Nordic Hero (5), Duca Valentinois (2) and Spectroscope (9) will need an even tempo up-front at the very least, if they are a chance of making up ground on the front-runners.
Key Runner Analysis
Chamois Road ran third at his last start in the Group Three Heffernan at Sandown, which is clearly the strongest form line of any runner in this race.
Drawn the rail in that run, he found himself in the worst going but managed to fight hard to the line.
He's proven on a Soft surface (9: 3-2-1) and looks the value runner in the field at $12 fixed odds.
The Patrick Payne trained galloper will head forward in what is likely to be a slowly run race, which will see him perfectly placed to sprint off a slow tempo.
Goodfella is six weeks between runs, which is a query. However, the form from his last start third was franked by Kaonic (finished fourth in that race), who won well over the Flemington Carnival.
The son of Snitzel has shown a liking for a rain-affected surface and if ridden positively, is likely to get a soft run up on the speed.
His will to win could be questioned, but he finds a race here where he can show his best and is weighted to be very competitive.
Peacans impressed at her last start, winning in Listed company when first-up at Hawkesbury. She has gone up as the favourite, which is a surprise considering the rise in class for her in this race. She's also been slugged with a further 3kg from her last start win.
My Nordic Hero is yet to live up to his overseas form, with only one win from his eleven attempts in Australia.
This lightly raced gelding has gone up second-favourite, and with the 'Winx' trainer/jockey combo, there are no doubts punters will be coming out of trees to back this "moral" home.
Has the ability but is quickly proving to be a money muncher.
Best Racing Tips
1st Chamois Road
2nd Goodfella
3rd Pecans
4th My Nordic Hero
Race 7 Starlight Stakes (Listed) 1100m
Speed Map Analysis
Expect only moderate early speed for this sprint.
The Waterhouse & Bott trained Invincible Star (4) will cross to the rails and lead.
Deploy (3) has drawn well and will slot in behind the leader, with Spending to Win (6) likely to sit just off Invincible Star, one off the rail.
The remainder of the field lack the early pace needed to contest the lead.
Gweneth (8) rises significantly in grade and is likely to settle midfield from the wide draw. She'll be joined by favourite Marsupial (10), who has drawn the widest and will have to be restrained to near last.
Key Runner Analysis
Invincible Star has competed against the best sprinters in the country this preparation but has failed to make her mark.
The one time Everest contender hasn't tasted victory for over 12 months but gets her chance here dropping back in grade.
She looks to get an easy lead and if she recaptures the form that saw her run second to Merchant Navy in the 2017 Coolmore Stud Stakes, then she'll win this by panels.
Deploy comes off an extended injury layoff and has to carry the top-weight of 61kg. He's been given two easy trials in preparation and on his best form, would be too good for these runners.
He gets the run of the race behind the leaders and will relish the Soft track. If he's at 80%, he will be fighting out the finish.
Spending to Win finds himself in a race with plenty of depth but is well weighted and likely to get favours up on the pace.
The gelding by Snitzel loves the sting out of the track and with the Team Snowden polish applied, there is no doubt he'll be in the mix.
Badajoz will get his chance to find a run along the rails. With the leaders dictating in front, it's likely the field will swing wide in an attempt to make up ground.
This will allow jockey Brenton Avdulla plenty of room along the inside and if the rail isn't too inferior, he's a genuine place chance.
Best Racing Tips
1st Invincible Star
2nd Deploy
3rd Spending to Win
4th Badajoz
Race 8 Summer Racing Handicap (BM 88) 1300m
Speed Map Analysis
A race that which appears to lack early speed on paper.
Catesby (12) and Blue Tycoon (13) will speed across to the rails in an attempt to lead.
Intueri (2) and Mapmaker (3) will push forward and sit just off the leaders, with Gresham (7) and Beau Geste (1) getting the gun run, settling behind that duo.
Early favourite Revenire (8) will be forced to race beyond mid-field and could well find himself three-wide in the run.
Key Runner Analysis
Gresham has drawn well for his first-up tilt and will get plenty of favours in the run.
His most recent trial was solid and with Hugh Bowman booked to ride you'd expect the son of Sebring to be ready to fire.
Expect Bowman to sit three back with cover and peel widest on turning for home, before putting them away in the straight.
Beau Geste gets a soft run from the inside barrier, but will need luck on turning for home.
Kerrin McEvoy is booked to ride and with the 53.5kg, he's weighted to give this a shake.
Intueri is another runner who will be afforded a soft run behind the leaders.
Although this is a step up in class, he drops 5.5kg, gets Corey Brown to ride and can make his presence felt.
Mapmaker is always thereabouts in these types of races and although this is a rise in class, the runners engaged aren't exactly world beaters.
He drops 5kg, is drawn perfectly and shouldn't be left out of any exotics.
Best Racing Tips
1st Gresham
2nd Beau Geste
3rd Intueri
4th Mapmaker
Race 9 TAB Rewards Handicap (BM 88) 1500m
Speed Map Analysis
There looks to be little speed engaged in this race, allowing the only notable leader Arraignment (3) to carve out slow sectionals in the lead.
Drawn perfectly, Gambler's Blues (4) and Gaulois (5) will take a sit behind the leaders. Drochaid (1) and Tip Top (2) will be positioned three pairs back, with a drop on their rivals.
Well-fancied runners Asterius (14) and Sexy Eyes (15) will be restrained near last and with the predicted slow pace, they'll have to produce a monumental effort to be fighting out the finish.
Key Runner Analysis
Gaulois has an impressive second-up record and looks set to peak once again here.
In a big push for his chances, Hugh Bowman has been booked to ride. Drawn well in barrier six, Bowman can trail Arraignment and Gambler's Blues across, which will afford him the run of the race off a slow tempo.
The gelding handles the Soft tracks with ease and has significantly more upside than his rivals, making him the best bet of the day.
Tip Top lacked early speed and was forced to come the widest on turning for home at his last outing.
Stepping up to the1500m will allow him to take a more forward position in the run.
He's shown a liking for the Soft tracks and he is a clear second pick.
Notio goes up 3kg from his last start win and faces an arguably stronger field here, despite staying in the same grade.
Drawn to get a soft run yet again, he will be in the mix.
Arraignment will make his own luck in front and with the 3kg claim for talented apprentice Robbie Dolan, he'll be sure to give a sight.
Best Racing Tips
1st Gaulois
2nd Tip Top
3rd Notio
4th Arraignment
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