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  • 12:32:51 AEST
  • Thursday, 23 November 2017

Melbourne Cup 2017 preview: a brutally honest assessment of your horse

Tagged: Melbourne Cup

What we really think of your horse's chance of winning the Cup

You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2017 Melbourne Cup but the reality is only a handful of thoroughbreds have a real chance of winning. Our form analysts have rated each runner in the Melbourne Cup and give you a brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race. Our rating translates to our Rated Odds.

If you are not a regular punter and aren't sure what to do with the Rated Odds price then consider this. If the odds on offer by your bookmaker for a particular runner are higher than the Rated Odds, then you will get paid more than the horse's chances of winning if it salutes in the Cup. If the price is less than our Rated Odds then you aren't getting paid enough for the risk you are taking. If that's all too confusing just ignore the numbers and read the comments.

Each runner is listed in order of their Rated Odds.


3. Humidor  
 
Rated Odds

$6.50        

Current Odds $9.50

Absolutely flying after chasing home WINX to finish 0.4 length second in the Cox Plate when he looked ready to go further. That's the best form-line you'll find. Was ridden upside down in the Caulfield Cup. Looks a very strong contender for the Cup.

 

7. Johannes Vermeer
 
Rated Odds

$8.50        

Current Odds $10

Makes strong claims after an impressive Caulfield Cup and now has two Australian runs under his belt which is significant factor. Major player.

 

2. Almandin
 
Rated Odds

$10      

Current Odds $9

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner when he had the race run to suit. Goes up 4.5kg this year and doesn’t look to be going as well as he was 12 months ago. Top 5 result. 

 

5. Marmelo
 
Rated Odds

$13      

Current Odds $8.50

Was very impressive in the Caulfield Cup. Will need some luck jumping from barrier 16 especially when considering the way that Flemington is playing at the moment. More of a chance if she is ridden aggressively and I can't see that happening. 

 

 

22. Rekindling
 
Rated Odds

$14      

Current Odds $12

Has quite an impressive record and is a genuine hope. Would have preferred to see him have a run in Australia before the Cup. Perfect barrier and light weight is a massive plus. 

 

23. Amelie's Star
 
Rated Odds

$20     

Current Odds $17

Ridden upside down in the Caulfield Cup. Beat 2016 Cup winner Almandin and Geelong Cup winner Vengeur Masque in the Bart Cummings. Can improve sharply.

 

19. SIngle Gaze
 
Rated Odds

$21     

Current Odds $41

 

Freakish effort in the Caulfield Cup when giving chase to the leader in a fast run race. Will be allowed to sit closer from the better draw and hopefully gets a quieter ride. She is a huge chance with even luck. 

 

1. Hartnell
 
Rated Odds

$21     

Current Odds $26

Ran third in this race last year and is looking for the 3200m this preparation. Genuine top 10 hope but can't see him winning. 

 

15. Boom Time
 
Rated Odds

$21     

Current Odds $26

Had all the favours for his win in the Caulfield Cup. Didn't fire at his only go over 3200m in the Sydney Cup with the clock-wise direction blamed for his poor performance. Stable have hinted towards further improvement. Don't discard. 

 

20. Wall Of Fire
 
Rated Odds

$21     

Current Odds $13

Nice enough effort in his first Australian run. The form from that race is okay. Can run top 10. 

 

18. Nakeeta
 
Rated Odds

$31     

Current Odds $34

First race in Australia. Has been ultra consistent in the UK finishing top four in 80% of his past 15 runs over the last two years. Won first-up last start over 2787m so can perform fresh. Top 5 chance. 

 

9. Max Dynamite
 
Rated Odds

$31     

Current Odds $15

Lightly raced thoroughbred who wasn't disgraced in the 2015 edition of the Melbourne Cup running 0.5 lengths second to Prince Of Penzance. Only raced four times since including a recent victory over 3419m. Had his chance to win a Cup, doubt he'll be winning this year. Top 5 chance. 

 

13. Big Duke
 
Rated Odds

$41     

Current Odds $19

Wasn't suited by the slow pace last start in the Moonee Valley Cup and is better than that highlighted by two quality runs before that. Expect him to run in the top 10. 

 

24. Cismontane
 
Rated Odds

$41     

Current Odds $51

Will go to the front and give them something to chase. Unlikely to fight out the finish but can run top 10.

 

21. Thomas Hobson
 
Rated Odds

$41     

Current Odds $16

First start in Australia from a wide barrier. It's proven time and time again that these foreign raiders need at least one run in Australia to win. 

 

8. Bondi Beach
 
Rated Odds

$51     

Current Odds $67

Would need to bring his 'A' game. Not sure he knows what that is. Top 10 chance given a soft run. 

 

6. Red Cardinal
 
Rated Odds

$51     

Current Odds $19

Couldn't beat Marmelo over 3000m and hasn't had a run in Australia which isn't a proven formula. Can finish in the top 10. 

 

10. Ventura Storm
 
Rated Odds

$51     

Current Odds $34

Was poor in the Caulfield Cup when reports indicated that he had an issue with his hoof. Sure to improve over the 3200m but others from that form-line have him covered. 

 

4. Tiberian
 
Rated Odds

$101     

Current Odds $31

Foreign trainer, foreign jockey and barrier 23.  Will go forward, spend plenty of fuel and be lucky to finish in the top 10. 

 

12.  Wicklow Brave
 
Rated Odds

$101     

Current Odds $51

Was only average in the Caulfield Cup off a hot tempo. Goes around without me. 

 

17.  Libran
 
Rated Odds

$101     

Current Odds $41

Not up to these, can go past a few in the straight, but won't threaten. 

 

16.  Gallante
 
Rated Odds

$251     

Current Odds $101

Needs the irrigation left on to run in the top 5. Making up the numbers.

 

My selections are:

1st - Humidor

2nd - Single Gaze 

3rd - Johannes Vermeer

4th - Rekindling

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