Emirates Stakes 2017 race preview

There was still a clear bias on the rails on Oaks Day, typical of how the track has played since Derby Day. There is no doubt there are some favours down the middle of the home straight and against the outside rail for the straight races, but I will be assuming a leader bias against the rails again on Saturday for Emirates Stakes Day.

Market Movers

The biggest move in the race has come for Gingernuts. Opening at $7.50 earlier in the week, punters had backed the Kiwi gelding into $6 on Thursday evening. Some smaller moves have also come in for Tosen Stardom and Folkswood.

 

Key Runners

#7 Folkswood 5.5 -> 5

Third, 4.5 lengths off Winx in the Cox Plate rates very well here. That was the quickest time ever for that race too.

Expect him to go forward from a wide gate. It they don't go silly early he should get a nice sit and be ready to pounce in the straight.

 

#10 Gingernuts 7.50 -> 6

Group one winner at this distance last spring. Has been racing strongly in New Zealand where he was a runner-up at this distance and won at the mile the run before, both at Group one level.

Handles all track conditions. Genuine contender.

 

#15 Cliff's Edge 5.50 -> 6

Ultra consistent colt who is having a golden preparation. Ran second to star filly Aloisia at his latest effort. Great light weight chance.

 

#1 Happy Clapper 7.50 

Missed a top two finish for the first time at his recent start when 6.5 lengths behind Winx in the Cox Plate. No disgrace there.

Yet to do better than sixth at three goes at the Melbourne way of going. Expect him to be competitive.

 

#3 Gailo Chop 7.5 -> 7.5

Very impressive this preparation. Won the G1 Caulfield Stakes at this distance two starts back and very competitive in the same grade before that. 

Don't think Moonee Valley is his track and prepared to forgive any attempt to lead all the way in a Cox Plate with Winx who ran the race record.

Don't overlook.

 

#4 Tosen Stardom 12 -> 11

Didn't get any favours from the on-pace bias last Saturday. Based on how the track played on Oaks Day there may be some favours if he swoops down the middle here. His form before the Cantala was solid and it won't surprise to see him fighting it out at the finish.

 

#6 Tom Melbourne 9.50 -> 11

Well, well, well...what can we say? He had my money again last week.

If it was any other horse I would be back on him again here. But.....five seconds from six starts this preparation and no win now in 602 days, one has to ask if he has forgotten how to go past the final horse. Not for me.

 

#2 It's Somewhat 9.50 -> 11

Won the G1 Doncaster and the G2 Hollindale last preparation. Don't think he's going as well this time around but certainly has the class to turn the tables.

 

Of the others....I wouldn't discard Harlem. I am usually against any drop back in distance but there is definitely an argument that he is seeking it here. Only win this campaign was the G3 Naturalism over 2000m. Could surprise.

 

Selections

1st  Gailo Chop - has a genuine excuse for his recent outing and was a solid campaigner before that. Has the credentials to win.

2nd Gingernuts

3rd Folkswood