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  • 11:34:37 AEST
  • Tuesday, 12 December 2017

Come on Tom Melbourne - Railway Stakes 2017


Come on Tom!

Tom Melbourne will attempt to break one of the longest losing runs in Australia on Saturday. If a horse hasn't won for 616 days it's usually on its way out. But in the case of Tom Melbourne its different.

The seven-year-old gelding has found one horse better in eight of his 24 career starts. Five of those second placings came in this preparation. It is just bad luck? Or, is there something going on with Tom Melbourne?

He lines-up in the Group 1 Railway Stakes at Ascot on Saturday and presents as the $6 favourite as I type. The $1M purse will be contested over the mile, a distance he has run over for his last three starts finishing second twice and a close sixth the other time when he jumped from barrier 15 at Caulfield.

Here are some things in his favour for a break through this time around:

  • He gets the inside barrier and has good enough early speed to capitalise on it. Inside barriers have proven to be advantageous to runners at Ascot over the 1600m.
  • Damien Oliver takes the ride replacing Glen Boss who piloted him over his three previous runs.

 

Biggest dangers

It's not the easiest race to break through in for the Chris Waller trained horse, with some key rivals boasting strong form lines.

Black Heart Bart - runner-up in the Makybe Diva 2016. Hasn't quite hit his straps this campaign though. Tends to produce his best results over 1400m

Scale Of Justice - won this race last year. Looked a bit flat at his recent outing. Improvement needed.

Supply And Demand - looks his biggest danger. Two solid runs coming into this race and looks to be crying out for the mile.

 

On paper Tom Melbourne has the ability to take line honours. His G1 Epsom effort is the only thing you need to look at to convince yourself of that. Second, half-a-length to Happy Clapper.

Many equine psychologists would explain Tom Melbourne's performance as a confidence issue. Just like sportsmen have slumps, so do animals, with the ultimate remedy coming from their support base.

Why don't we help the old boy break through this Saturday. After you put a few of your hard earned on him tell him that you're behind him #ComeOnTom.

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