Form Lay

31/10/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Stale & over the top

It was business as usual last week, with both Ecumenical ($2.80) and Criaderas ($1.90) falling victim to the false favourite tag.

This week’s edition of Lays of the Day focuses on two short-priced runners that are deep into their preparations and at high risk of going stale.

At Flemington, I’m expecting one that has been up for a very long time to struggle at the 1200m distance and wilt late on his run.

Whilst at Rosehill, a horse that has had a torrid Everest campaign looks ready for the spelling paddock, rather than another “gut buster”.  

 

Flemington Race 3 #9 Octane $2.80

Comes up way under the odds to my eye, in a deep race with plenty of hard head talent engaged.

He is a huge risk at the distance, having still not won at two attempts over the 1200m. If there is any pressure, expect him to paddle late over the final 50m.

He is now deep into this preparation with this being his seventh start this time in, and I suspect that he is very close to being “over the top” and going stale.

I prefer the fresher horses on this occasion and expect him to fold up late. Lay.

 

Rosehill Race 7 #1 Gytrash $3.10

Is attempting to go to the well one too many times here, in a classic example of afterthought behaviour.

He was clearly set for the Everest and the entire training program would have centred around having him peak on that day. He could be “fried” here physically and the wide draw (gate 12) can only exacerbate this.

Granted there are a few backing up from recent racing with him, however an Everest preparation is much longer, specific and arduous than most.

I expect the non-Everest horses to hold an advantage.

The speed map looks ugly and he is almost certainly forced to drag back to near last, where he will need luck in running and need to loop the entire field to win. Hard to do. Avoid.

Share On:

Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

Top Stories

2/12/20 Best Bets at Launceston

Tassie Racing heads back to Launceston on Wednesday night, for a competitive eight-race card which kicks off at 6.19 pm .....

Dec 02, 2020 09:39AM
READ MORE

2/12/20 Racing Tipster of the week

Horse racing tipster of the week The pro punters really pinned the ears back this week, kicking away at the summit of.....

Dec 02, 2020 07:13AM
READ MORE

2/12/20 Free horse racing tips and best bets

Free horse racing tips from Rick Morris Back Rick's HOT Bets! Now you can follow his tips for today without payi.....

Dec 01, 2020 08:26AM
READ MORE

1/12/20 Best Bets for Hamilton

Tuesday racing in Victoria takes place in Hamilton this week, with eight races set for decision over the course of .....

Dec 01, 2020 09:44AM
READ MORE

Racing News Topics


Tweets by @theGreatTipOff

Top 5 Tipsters

450% POT
Get Tips
2.  foxones
PRO
246% POT
3.  saturdaystandouts
PRO
242% POT
4.  InciteRacing
PUNTER
200% POT
5.  Robshots
PRO
180% POT
View Full Leaderboard

Next Race to Jump

NEW PLYMOUTH R1 Tip
NEW PLYMOUTH R2 Tip
NEW PLYMOUTH R3 Tip
REMINGTON PAR.. R1 Tip
NEW PLYMOUTH R4 Tip
REMINGTON PAR.. R2 Tip
NORTHFIELD PA.. R5 Tip
NORTHFIELD PA.. R6 Tip
NORTHFIELD PA.. R7 Tip
NORTHFIELD PA.. R8 Tip
NORTHFIELD PA.. R9 Tip
NORTHFIELD PA.. R10 Tip
ADDINGTON R1 Tip
ADDINGTON R2 Tip
ADDINGTON R3 Tip
ADDINGTON R4 Tip
ADDINGTON R5 Tip
ADDINGTON R6 Tip

More Racing news you might like

1/12/20 Best Bets for Hamilton

Tuesday racing in Victoria takes place in Hamilton this week, with eight races set for decision over the course of .....

READ MORE

30/11/20 Saturday Racing Review at The Valley

Ride Of The Day  JAMIE KAH - SEB SONG It didn’t take long for Jamie Kah to remind punters how sublime her skills a.....

READ MORE

30/11/20 Horse Racing Tips at Sapphire Coast

We head south to the Sapphire Coast for racing on Monday, with a strong 7 race meeting ahead for punters.  .....

READ MORE

29/11/20 Horse Racing Tips for Hong Kong Racing

Sha Tin plays host to the last meeting in November on Sunday, with a bumper 10 race card ahead. Two 1200m races will .....

READ MORE

29/11/20 Best Bets for Hobart

Hobart plays host to a small but competitive seven-race card on Sunday afternoon, with the meeting set to get underway a.....

READ MORE

28/11/20 Harness racing tips for Saturday night

Harness Racing Tips from Michael Johnson Back Michael's HOT Bets! Michael's tips have yielded punters 49% Profit.....

READ MORE

Copyright  © 2020 S93 thegreattipoff.com
Stay in Control. For gambling help call 1800 858 858 or your local State gambling helpline, Gamblers Help, Mission Australia or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Users must be at least 18 years old.

TheGreatTipOff.com (the "site) is not a bookmaking or wagering website. As such the site does not provide bookmaking or wagering services. We are a tipping and information service site. If you choose to take tips or use information on this website, you acknowledge and agree that you will only wager with licensed service providers for your jurisdiction. For help call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Our full Terms and Conditions are listed here.