31/10/20 Horse racing tips from early market movers

Punters are highly active in early markets for a bumper Derby Day card, with the most vicious moves highlighted below.

The Hotham Handicap is of particular interest, where a classic Paul Preusker set up looks likely.

At Rosehill it is Golden Eagle day, with plenty of early betting action and strong views apparent.  

As always, a further push in betting close to start time would add extreme confidence.

 

Flemington Tips

 

Embolism

Has the powerful trainer/jockey combination of O’Brien and Oliver, who are both at the top of their game.

He won with ease last start at Caulfield over 1600m when jumping as the $2.60 favourite.

Although this is a significant step-up in grade, I expect him to have the talent to win.  

 

Kemalpasa

Won the opening event here on this day last year, with a dominant Flemington straight run display.

His most recent form has been mixed, however he did show enough (3 of 9) at this track last start to suggest he is ready to peak.

Expect him to tag the leaders from just in behind, before presenting late to arrive in time.

 

Admire Robson

Is a huge tip from a number of respected judges, who are adamant this is a classic case of Paul Preusker placing one to perfection.

It appeared as though the horse was ridden conservatively at his last two starts, and passed the post in a manner which indicated he had much more to offer.

Expect the rider to show good intent on this occasion to take a closer position. Yes.   

 

Chica Fuerte

Loves to lead, however on this occasion from the wide draw in gate 13 I expect them to take the trail midfield in the moving line.

With the track likely to favour run-on profiles, I expect these different tactics to bear fruit.

If she can settle throughout the run, look for her to be fighting out the finish.

 

Rosehill Tips

 

Monica’s Star

Is shooting for a hat-trick of wins following success at her past two starts at Port Macquarie.

She looks to have good tactical speed and should use this to overcome the outside draw (gate 14) to find a midfield position with cover.

Take off Louise Day’s 3kg claim and the horse carries a feather weight of only 53kg.

 

Nimalee

Placed 3 of 14 in Group 3 level at her latest, when only 1.6 lengths off the winner at Randwick over 1600m.

This is a deep race with a number of Group performers engaged, however she looks to be on an upward trajectory and has more room for improvement being lightly raced.

She can take another big step forward in her career and win.

 

Colette

Was ultra-dominant last campaign when braining them all at Randwick in the ATC Oaks over 2400m.

Since returning, she has been unsuited in a number of Group 1 races and now finds an easier assignment.

The drop back to 1500m is very interesting and you can trust gun trainer James Cummings is executing a shrewd plan in this regard.

 

Surreal Step

Did nothing first-up in the Silver Eagle, however I suspect there were genuine excuses as the horse was vetted at the start before racing keenly and wide.

In any case, I believe the last start effort was only ever intended to simulate a lead up barrier trial, with no real intent shown.

Completely forget the previous run and he can easily bounce back to winning form here. Watch betting late.