Flemington Finishing Post

31/10/20 Flemington tips and best bets

Best Plays for Derby Day

Flemington plays host to day one of the Melbourne Cup Carnival this weekend, as Derby Day dishes up four Group 1 events for punters to feast on.

The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with only very light showers predicted, punters should expect dry racing conditions. 

The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit and at this set-up, the track should play exceptionally fair. 

 

 

Flemington Race 1 Tip #3 Aysar $2.15 

Fourth-up into the campaign here, Aysar comes off a very competitive second place behind Ole Kirk in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas

After beginning well in that clash, he sat three wide with cover behind Crosshaven and went straight past him in the straight.

After looking the winner, he was run down late by the very talented Ole Kirk, only beaten 0.4 lengths on the line. 

Two starts back in the Group 3 Guineas Prelude, he got too far back off a slow tempo and was never a chance of running into the finish.

He now drops back down to Group 3 level and sticks to the mile, which clearly suits.

I love how perfectly he is weighted for this clash, only rising 0.5kg off the last start hit-out. Main rivals Crosshaven and Endanger will both carry an extra 2kg off their previous runs. 

From barrier 2 he gets the perfect run on the fence in behind the lead. Even though the tempo looks moderate, he will be close enough to strike when the gaps appear. 

I have him marked as even money chance and will be happy to take anything over that. 

Aysar

 

Flemington Race 4 Tip #11 Admire Robson $6.00 

The final ticket into the Melbourne Cup awaits here, as the hopeful stayers line up for the Group 3 Hotham Stakes over 2500m. 

Admire Robson looks a great bet at $6 and I can't believe he isn't closer in the market to Ashrun and Schabau, given they come through the same form line. 

In the Group 3 Bart Cummings last start at this track and distance, Admire Robson got shuffled way back in the field on the home turn and was left with a wall of horses in front of him at the top of the straight. 

This prohibited him from building much needed momentum at a crucial stage of the race, and was forced to start working into his run much later than the horses who finished in front of him. 

He was placed under full pressure 400m out and managed to run 22.78 seconds in the final 400m, and 11.64 seconds in the final 200m. Both these sectionals were the quickest of the race. 

He is now third-up into his prep, and with even luck here from barrier four I'm tipping he goes very close to reversing the results from last start.

He's unbelievably well weighted with 56kg, which is 5kg off the top weight favourite. 

Looks great value.

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Author Biography

Lewis Willoughby

Lewis Willoughby

Lewis lives and breathes horse racing, focusing his form analysis on Melbourne metropolitan meetings. He's an up and coming star in the industry, featuring in Best Bets and having written for The Age and The Sun Herald, as well as guest experiences on RSN927am.

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