Form Lay

3/10/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Backmarker Blues

This week’s edition of Lays of the Day focuses on two runners at short quotes, who will need to overcome ugly speed maps to be claiming victory.

Both horses have a run-on profile and will be up against it on Saturday, as they line-up in what appears to be races with only moderate speed.

I expect a market drift for each runner and this to be exacerbated early on race day, after the emergence of some leader bias.

 

Randwick Race 4 #1 Fierce Impact $2.30

Was completely “blessed” in the run when winning the Makybe Diva Stakes last start at Flemington and the mugs will be rusted on following that performance.

There's no doubt he is classy however with plenty of early speed drawn on his inside for this clash, he is a big chance of being trapped wide.

Jumping from barrier 6, the rider may be forced to snag right back to near last. If that unfolds and the front runners drop anchor mid-race, he could face a mammoth task to get home over the top of these.

Expect Kolding to be at least one pair back from the leading pack and that will prove a big advantage in a moderately run race.

It’s hard to see Fierce Impact running over the top of them and I expect a market drift late. 

One to avoid at the current poison odds.

Fierce Impact

 

Randwick Race 5 #2 Hungry Heart $2.40

I’m happy to oppose the current favourite here and believe she'll be knocked off her perch close to start time, with a flood of money expected for Dame Giselle.

Even with the step-up to 1600m, the speed map looks ugly and her normal run-on pattern appears completely unsuited in what could develop into a slowly run race.

She also faces a stiff task if the track plays leaderish. If that plays out, she will be forced to come via the non-preferred wider ground if racing back toward the rear.

I can see the big syndicates betting against her late when the liquidity builds, and expect a significant market drift. Lay.

Hungry Heart

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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