Form Lay

24/10/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Afterthought Alarm Bells

We helped steer punters away from two banana skins on Everest Day at Randwick.

In the opening race, highly rated two-year-old Kalashnikov ($3.70 out to $5.50) came unstuck before hot-pot Star Of The Seas ($2.00 out to $2.30) put in a lacklustre performance in the Craven Plate.

This week we focus on a Moonee Valley favourite who is likely to become a victim of the dreaded “afterthought mentality”- or in other words, owners wanting to race on beyond their grand final target.

We also have you covered at Randwick where our last 3 runners identified as under the odds, have gone under.

 

Moonee Valley Race 4 #2 Ecumenical $2.90

I’m happy to take on this three-year-old filly, given she would have been specifically set for her grand final last start in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield.

This is also her first look at the tight circuit of Moonee Valley, which can often be a trap for young horses.

She's coming off two very tough runs when racing deep in each, and I expect her to be over the top now following all the hard racing in good grade.

Expect the bigger model players to mark her down, given this smells like an afterthought.

Look for $3+ to be widely available come start time. Avoid.  

 

Randwick Race 4 #7 Criaderas $1.90

Is now very well found following the excellent last start win, which was pleasing to the eye when she charged from well back to get up.

Due to her growing profile, she is likely to be over-bet in this race and I expect a few smart ones entered here to make it a tough task.

Her natural pattern is to get back and run home hard, a racing profile that is always a risk in most races. With only a moderate tempo expected here, she looks set to arrive at the finish too late.

I expect both Achedemus and Cuba to roll forward at a moderate clip, and from there drop anchor and walk this field for a long way. This will make it a tough assignment for backmarkers.

Royal Celebration and Rainer also have plenty of class and they will both race closer in the run, giving them a greater advantage than the favourite who will be near last.

The current $1.90 is pure poison in this field with a slow tempo, and expect her to charge home when it’s all over. Lay.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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