24/10/20 Horse Racing Tips for the Cox Plate

The 100^th running of the Cox Plate presents as a wide open affair and one of the most exciting edition in years.

We get to see high quality international raiders, Armory, Sir Dragonet and Aspeter facing off against local stars Arcadia Queen and Russian Camelot.

Boom three-year-old colt Grandslam brings plenty of intrigue into the race and will be looking to replicate Shamus Award's front running victory in 2013 carrying just 49.5kg.

The chances don’t end there. 

Can Master Of Wine bounce back off his disappointing Caulfield Cup run and finally live up to his potential?

Or, can Humidor produce one of racing’s greatest comeback stories and go one better than 2017 when he gave Winx an almighty scare?

 

Track Conditions

The rail has been set in the true position for Saturday, which will provide all runners a fair crack. 

The only concern is the current weather forecast, which is predicting 15-25mm rain on Friday (Manikato Stakes night) and 10-25mm on Cox Plate day.

With 16 races being run prior to the Cox Plate, expect the track to be chopped up and riders looking to move off the fence.

The forecasts have been wrong in recent weeks, but if the heavens open we could see racing in the Heavy 9 and 10 range come Saturday afternoon.

The wet conditions will find plenty of horses out and I suspect Arcadia Queen to be the drifter if that unfolds.

 

Moonee Valley Race 9 - Cox Plate 2040m (G1)

The Map 

There's no genuine speed engaged, which will see Jye McNeil press forward on Grandslam (5) from the nice draw and use his light weight in an attempt to steal the race from the front.

Expect Magic Wand (4) and Master Of Wine (1) to settle in behind the speed from their low draws to box seat and get the runs of the race, while Kolding (10) and Probabeel (2) can settle midfield.

With a lack of speed here, the map gets muddier and leading chances Arcadia Queen (8), Aspeter (3) and Sir Dragonet (7) can lob just off midfield while favourite Russian Camelot (15) will be forced to the rear from the far outside draw.

The leading international in the market, Armory (6), maps to be ridden cold and will need plenty of luck in transit off the slow speed. The same goes for the old marvel, Humidor (14).

 

Analysis & Tips 

1^st Sir Dragonet $13.00

Happy to be with the Maher & Eustace trained international in his first start on Australian soil, after a recent second behind star European galloper, Magical.

While he’s finished runner-up in his last four starts as a short favourite, he’s been far from disgraced and has made a mockery of the short-priced Armory while carrying significant weight

What stands out for me is his fifth placed effort in last year’s Epsom Derby, when he was a beaten favourite behind Caulfield Cup runner up Anthony Van Dyck (0.5 lengths).

If the rain comes, he’ll only grow a leg and with Boss on board from barrier 7 he can sit midfield and grind the leaders down late with clear air at the top of the straight.

 

2^nd Grandslam $19

I was initially sceptical of the three-year-old getting a run in the race ahead of Buckhurst, but the more I dissect this race the more I keep warming to the lightly raced colt.

With only 49.5kg on his back and a strong run behind star juvenile Ole Kirk in the Caulfield Guineas, he clearly has the ability to measure up here.

There’s no doubt in my mind that he isn’t up to the calibre of last year’s runner-up Castelvecchio, but this race doesn’t have star Japanese mare Lys Gracieux. With very little speed engaged, I expect him to get an easy time of it up front.

If there was a market for who’s leading at the top of the straight, this horse would be odds-on and don’t be surprised if he kicks and keeps kicking.

 

3^rd Russian Camelot $4.80

The spruik horse of the year and despite being shown up by Arcadia Queen last start at $1.50, I expect a bounce back here.

Danny O’Brien says he isn’t concerned by the wide draw, but deep down he knows it will be the deciding factor.

He may just be too good, but he’s no So You Think despite many drawing comparisons. 

With little speed engaged, he faces an uphill task from the rear.

 

 

4^th Probabeel $8.50

She’s been set for this race and will be peaking fourth-up and stepping up to 2040m.

The in-form Kerrin McEvoy is engaged to ride and from the inside draw, she maps to get an economical run with cover but will need luck when the whips get cracking.

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