17/10/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we struck at Randwick when identifying the poison odds dished up for the well beaten mug magnet, Alligator Blood.

We again focus on the key Sydney venue with two selections that look set to be banana skin slip ups for punters on Everest Day.

These two horses appear well under the odds at their current quote and I expect both to drift in the market close to start time.

 

Randwick Race 1 #6 Kalashnikov $3.90

Raced keenly on debut last start in the Breeders Plate and will need to improve those manners to be winning here.

He draws awkward again in gate 8 for this clash and they risk being caught wide, unless the rider revs him up.

It looks like they will be forced to show good intent and this could cause the same over-racing issues he experienced last start.

There are plenty of quality two-year-old types engaged here who have been impressive trial stars, and you can expect the competition to be fierce.

This colt carries a certain level of un-warranted hype, being with a high-profile stable and ownership group. This will artificially compress his true price.

These early two-year-old races can throw up a lottery result and I’m keen to take him on at any price sub $5. Lay.

 

Randwick Race 8 #2 Star Of The Seas $2.00

I’m strongly against the hot-pot here, who appears severely unsuited with the small field in what is likely to be a slowly run affair.

They could absolutely crawl in this race and if they do, he faces a massive task to perform with his favoured run-on pattern.

Given he is now fourth-up and his main targets have now passed, the horse has little to no upside.

This looks like a classic afterthought by connections, who are pressing on despite the horse being specifically set for last start's Epsom Handicap.

I suspect that they may try to ride him closer and this will also contribute to his downfall, as horses ridden “upside-down” rarely achieve success.  

Expect much bigger odds than the current poison $2.00 quote come start time, and he is one to avoid late in the day at Randwick. Lay.