Ole Kirk

10/10/20 Best bets for the Caulfield and Thousand Guineas

3YO guns lock horns

This year's editions of the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas are packed full of great quality, and both shape as highly competitive affairs when compared to recent runnings.

In both races the fields hold plenty of intrigue for punters, and there is sure to be a number of strong betting moves between now and start time.

I expect the gun filly who was ultra dominant in the Thousand Guineas Prelude to continue her winning way in the girls feature.

Whilst in the boys' Guineas event, the Sydney form looks far too strong this year. We are set to witness the crowning of a champion colt who can go right on with it.

 

Track Conditions

The Caulfield track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit.

With rain predicted over the next 48 hours in Melbourne, we could receive a track downgrade come race day.

In recent meetings at Caulfield, plenty of winning horses have come from sitting three wide in the moving line.

Expect that pattern to continue on Saturday.

  

Caulfield Race 7 - Thousand Guineas 1600m (G1)

The Map

Expect genuine speed here, with Vangelic (10) and Night Raid (12) the most likely to carve across from their wide draws to take it up.

The moving line with cover could be the ideal pattern of the day, and that is the running position Instant Celebrity (9) will be aiming for.

I am against those drawn towards the inside barriers (1-4), including favourite Hungry Heart (3) who faces an ugly speed map and could struggle to extricate off the fence

Expect mid to wide draws to hold an advantage in this clash.

 

The Favourite

Hungry Heart ($3.40) has a huge SP profile after being crunched into $1.90 last start, and was clearly expected to win against the A graders in Sydney.

There is no doubt she is loaded with ability, however on this occasion she has a number of significant challenges to overcome.

She will need to travel well from Sydney and is having her first look at Caulfield, which is much tighter and a completely different set up when compared to her recent Randwick hit-outs.

From an inside draw in gate 3, there is a high risk she gets buried back along the inside and struggles for clear running.

I am very wary and expect her to be storming home late, although I'd prefer to be with others at the price and believe she is far too short here.

Hungry Heart

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

Instant Celebrity ($3.40)  maps beautifully from a mid draw and with a touch of luck, can find an ideal position three-wide with cover before unleashing hell on them as she pleases.

She was excellent last start when winning the prelude here with plenty of arrogance, and I expect her to improve off that run.

Rock My Wand ($17) comes up big odds and is a great value play for punters.

She was excellent last start here when she charged from a midfield position to only just miss. If the rain did come forcing a track downgrade, expect her to start much shorter. The value runner.

If the track is playing leaderish, Vangelic ($11) is a must include as she will ride the speed and has been racing in strong Sydney company.

Given any cheap mid-race sectional, expect her to give a good kick.

Hungry Heart ($3.40) is a must include in broader plays, although at the price represents poor value for win bettors.

She is likely to be storming home to fill the first four, when it is all over.

 

1st  Instant Celebrity 

2nd  Rock My Wand

3rd  Vangelic

4th  Hungry Heart

 

Caulfield Race 8 - Caulfield Guineas 1600m (Group 1)

The Map

Crosshaven (11) has no choice but to carve across from the outside gate, as I doubt they will risk being caught wide with no cover.

There is speed hunting up from the inside and they could fly along early over the first 200m, as they sort out running positions.

Expect Tagaloa (3) and Lunar Fox (4) to use their good draws and they should both race close to speed.

Others who can be up there challenging for the premier spots are Poland (9) and Grandslam (6), who are likely to take hold and race just in behind.

Again, those who race well back on the fence often find it difficult to extricate at Caulfield.

Tagaloa

 

The Favourite 

Ole Kirk ($3.40) brings what appears to be superior form out of the Golden Rose where he stormed late to get up on the line.

He should relish getting out to 1600m and may even be more dynamic than last start, when he still had time to cruise up over the Rosehill 1400m.

Maps to be in a gun running position three-wide with cover and is likely to collar them all late.

Clear on top pick.

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

I'm happy to be with Ole Kirk ($3.20) and with even luck, expect him to peel from the moving line as he likes before storming home over the top.

Mo'unga ($14) has shown enormous ability and is still untapped to a degree. Expect him to be another who travels in the ideal three-wide with cover lane and will certainly have his chance to sprint hard.

King's Legacy ($6.50)  finally gets out to his more suitable trip of 1600m here and has shown enough in the lead up runs to suggest he is now ready.

Throw in Cambourne ($14) who showed enough in the Prelude and is lightly raced (3:2-0-0) with plenty of upside.

 

1st  Ole Kirk 

2nd  Mo'unga

3rd  Kings Legacy

4th  Cambourne

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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