The EveresTrophy

19/10/19 Randwick tips and best bets: The Everest

In Good Time

Distance 1,200m
Track  Royal Randwick
Prizemoney $14,000,000
2018 winner

Redzel ($7.50)

Can Redzel make it three in-a-row?

Will Santa Ana Lane re-produce his TJ Smith run and blow them away?

Can Chris Waller produce a miracle and get Nature Strip to run a strong 1200m?

These are some of the questions that have captured the imagination of the entire racing industry. 

This year's Everest is arguably the most anticipated race in recent times, with a field rated significantly stronger than past editions of the race.

After launching onto the Spring racing calendar back in 2017, there is now far more at stake than bragging rights, with the Everest 2019 prize pool topping $14 million.

The conundrum facing punters is whether there are runners brave enough to go hard in an attempt to break the hearts of their rivals. If not, we will we see another conservative tempo like previous years. 


Race TempoRace Tempo

With such significant prizemoney on offer for the first four place getters, connections of notable leaders Nature Strip, Redzel and Ten Sovereigns are likely to instruct their riders to avoid setting a break-neck speed.

If that trio opt to race at a moderate tempo, the highest rated runners Santa Ana Lane and Pierata would face a near impossible task to bridge the gap.


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Race Track Randwick Track Traits

Randwick is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit. 

Expect there to be significant irrigation to be applied to the track with the warm weather forecast for the remainder of the week. This could see the rail being the inferior part of the track. 

With WNW winds of up to 30km/h predicted for Saturday afternoon, runners will jump straight into a gale from the 1200m start until the home turn. This will likely hinder the leader, outside leader and any runner who is caught three-wide the trip.

With the factors of tempo, track condition and weather at play, expect those who can travel on-pace or mid-field with cover to hold the key. 

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

Since drawing well in barrier three, the Chris Waller trained Arcadia Queen has been backed off the map, crunched from $6 into $4.20.

Pierata has been a notable drifter since drawing barrier one, blowing out from $4.80 to $6. 

Of the roughies, Nature Strip has been specked from $26 into $21, after drawing perfectly in barrier 12  

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

Santa #1 Santa Ana Lane $4.60

There is no doubting he's the best sprinter in Australia and if he gets the race run to suit, he'll win. 

The huge concern is the tempo and the barrier draw. If they go fast, he can sit one-length last and peel wide to fly over the top.

If they slow it down, Santa fans will be in a world of hurt. 

His first-up run was the perfect lead-up and his stats point to him peaking second-up.

With even luck, he's the one they have to beat!

Santa

 

Pierata#2 Pierata $4.80 > $6.00

Has been on the drift since drawing barrier one and rightfully so.

Luckily for connections, Tommy Berry has proven ability to be patient on his rides and that'll be the key to his chances here. 

His third-up record is fair, with one win from four attempts. However, loves the track and distance with three wins from four. 

He'll need some luck from the rail, but if Berry can sneak some runs while everyone else is panicking then he'll fight out the finish.

Under the odds! 

 

Redzel#3 Redzel $11.00

The two time winner of The Everest has been trained to the minute. 

The stable indicated that he was going to be flat in his second-up run last start, and that he would bounce back to his best third-up. 

Team Snowden have used this pattern of third-up into the Everest for his last two victories and the word on the street is that he's going better than ever. 

The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is the key here. McEvoy is experienced enough to run his own race and won't be caught out doing the donkey work if Nature Strip happens to take off. 

I expect McEvoy to find the rail and trail Nature Strip, whilst receiving cover from Ten Sovereigns. From there, McEvoy can just keep the old boy rolling from the 600m. 

He'll look the winner for a long way and if he brings his A-game, he's a genuine contender.

$11 is over the odds!

 

Nature Strip#4 Nature Strip $26.00 > $21.00

Has drawn perfectly in barrier 12 and with the best front running rider in the business Tim Clark, he'll be well rated in the lead. 

He doesn't run a strong 1200m, so Clark will do his best to keep the son of Nicconi running within himself. 

If he can do that, then he'll be in this race for a long way. I have him sneaking into fourth.   

 

Trekking#5 Trekking $26.00

The winner of the Group One Stradbroke Handicap over 1400m has returned in fine order this prep. 

His nice run in the Moir Stakes and last start win the Schillachi suggests he's a chance over the 1200m. 

He's had two wins from two starts over the track and distance and has drawn perfectly in barrier five. 

He doesn't have the class of some of these runners, but ticks plenty of boxes and can finish in the first half of the field.  

 

Classique#6 Classique Legend $13.00 > $15.00

The boom horse of the Autumn, who has failed to produce anything of note so far this prep.

His last start was only a pass mark and he'd need to improve out of sight from that run to figure in the finish here. 

His three-year-old form looks soft and I suspect he'll be well exposed on Saturday. No thanks! 

Classique Legend

 

TS#7 Ten Sovereigns $26.00

The betting tells the story here.

He's $26 and looks likely to drift, coming off his last start 7.5 length sixth. 

He was a dominant winner of the July Cup, with that form being franked by Advertise who subsequently won a Group One.

Connections are over the moon with the dry track, but I suspect that he'd have to produce a career best to run a top four here. 

 

Alizee#8 Alizee $13.00> $16.00

There is no doubt Godolphin and James Cummings have ticked all the boxes in preparation for this run. 

Her first-up win was good, before she was given little chance from the wide barrier in the Group One Memsie Stakes

Her recent trial suggests she's flying and it wouldn't surprise to see her produce a huge run. 

She has a nice turn of foot and if the pace is on, she'll get first crack at them down the outside. Over the odds!

Alizee

 

Sunlight#9 Sunlight $15.00

This multiple Group One winning mare had an easy time of it up front in the Gilgai and while it was a nice win, she was entitled to do so. 

She looks a length or two behind the class gallopers in this race and while she gets a dream run, I doubt she's dynamic enough to win.

One for the wider exotics. 

 

In Her Time#10 In Her Time $26.00

Kris Lees has given her three trials in preparation for her first-up run. 

A winner of five from eight first-up, there is no doubt she'll be ready to produce her best. 

She's drawn perfectly in barrier four and has the early speed to sit two pairs back with cover to enjoy a soft run in transit. 

This mare by Time Thief is a genuine dry tracker, has won three from six at the track and distance and has regularly mixed it with the top-rated Santa Ana Lane. 

She finished 0.3 lengths behind him in the Group Two Premier first-up last Spring, before finishing second by the same margin in the Group Two VRC Classic at Flemington. Both of those runs were over the 1200m. 

She'll get first crack at the on-pace runners and will be 3-4 lengths in front of Santa Ana Lane on turning for home.

Looks a great each-way bet!

In Her Time

 

Arcadia Queen#11 Arcadia Queen $6.00 > $4.20

Impressed in the Theo Marks but only beat Trope, who would be $201 in this. 

Her only win at 1200m came in maiden grade and this is her first go at competing against the top-line sprinters, which is a huge question mark. 

While she took a more forward position in her last start run, she risks being out of her comfort zone early if she tries the same tactic against this field. 

I have her mapped to sit on the rails in the run, third last over the trip. If the tempo is on, I can't see how she out-sprints Pierata or Santa Ana Lane. 

There is no doubt she'll improve second-up, but it'll have to be a significant jump to run top three. Pass!

Arcadia Queen

 

Yes Yes Yes#12 Yes Yes Yes $10.00

His run in the Golden Rose was strong, where he peaked with 100m to go. This suggests that the 1200m is more his go. 

It's a big ask for a three-year-old to mix it with the best of the best and while he carries 53kg and gets the blinkers on for the first-time, a win would shock. 

Unfortunately, he looks set to be one of only two runners who'll get caught wide in the run. If that plays out, he'll finish in the back half of the field. 

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st  In Her Time

2nd  Redzel

3rd  Santa Ana Lane

4th  Nature Strip

If you're betting in Sydney on Everest Day then make sure you check-out our Horse Racing Tips market where pro punters and experts in the racing media have their tips available.

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Author Biography

Michael Gannon

Michael Gannon

Michael is a life-long punter who enjoys the challenge of unearthing value buried within betting markets. The ex golf pro knows a thing or two about performing under pressure.

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