Homesman

12/10/19 Caulfield Stakes tips and best bets

Cox Plate Flavour

Distance 2000m
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Good 4 
Prizemoney $1,000,000
Class WFA
2018 winner Benbatl ($9.00)

This year's edition of the Caulfield Stakes features a number of runners with genuine Cox Plate aspirations.

Current Cox Plate favourite Avilius will be out to stamp his authority, as will key German import Danceteria. Both of these runners are likely to come from well back in the field.

I am with one who put in a huge run last start and can race close to speed. He is also high up in Cox Plate betting. 

 

Race Track Race Caulfield Track Traits

For the latest insight into how the Caulfield track is likely to play, read our preview of the Group 1 Caulfied Guineas here.  

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

Gailo Chop is the early mover in betting, firming from an opening quote of $15.00 to now trade at $12.00.

Race favourite Avilius remains rock solid and has slightly shortened from  $2.40 into $2.35. 

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

#1 Black Heart Bart $17

Shocked everyone last start in the Underwood Stakes after he won at odds of 100/1 and greater with some operators.   

The trainer has been under scrutiny all week, with a number of pundits questioning why his horses continue to surprise the market and win at Group 1 level.

He had the dream run close to speed last start however on this occasion, he must come from a wide draw in gate 9 with speed drawn inside.

I'm happy to oppose him considering he'll have to come from well-back in the field around a tight turning Caulfield. No.  

 

#2 Gailo Chop $15 > $12

Did nothing first-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes after finishing 13 of 15, but then improved last start up to 1800m in the Underwood when he placed third.

He fought hard last start and the 2000m here is now perfect.

Can race close to speed and be kicking for a long way. Yes.

Gailo Chop  

 

#5 Avilius $2.40 > $2.35

Was brilliant in Sydney when he stormed home from near last to win the George Main Stakes at Randwick.

It's a big jump from 1600m up to 2000m here, however it's his preferred distance (8:3-0-2) and you can trust that Godolphin have poured in more work.

A major player that appears slightly under the odds at $2.35 and you can expect a longer price to be available on the day. Wait.  

Avilius

 

#7 Homesman $3.90

Is the one for me, following his outstanding effort to just miss in the Underwood last start following a torrid run.

He was trapped three-deep with no cover for most of the trip and still had the audacity to charge home late, after tracking even wider.

If that run hasn't flattened him, he will be too good for these. Clear on top pick.

 

#8 Gatting $19

Was hard in the market last start in the Underwood, where he was slightly disappointing after finishing 5 of 12.

He wilted late in running last time out and is likely to be tapering off now this deep in the prep, noting this is his eighth start.

The peak was the big Group 1 win two starts back, and he looks to be on a clear downward trajectory. No.

 

#9 Dream Castle $12

International Group 1 level imported runner, whose stable know the right one to send following their victory in this race last year with Benbatl.

He has the first-up record (3:2-0-0) to suggest he is capable, however it would still be a mighty task.

Very difficult to line-up the form and I would need to see a massive market push late to get interested. Watch betting. 

 

#10 Danceteria $8.00

Another intriguing import who arrives following a German Group 1 win.

The stable word is that he will need the run, with the Cox Plate his main target.

Expect him to be the main "flashing light" run here and storming home late.   

   

Of The Others

None Preferred.

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st  Homesman

2nd  Gailo Chop  

3rd  Avilius

4th  Danceteria 

Think of a tipster in the racing media and they are more than likely to have their horse racing tips posted in our Tip Market. Every tipster listed is ranked in order of profitability.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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