The Randwick track is currently rated a Good 3, but with 40-80mm of rain forecast to fall in the lead-up to Saturday morning, the track will likely be downgraded into the heavy range.
Rails in the run will be handy in the early races. However, expect the running near the inside rail could chop out significantly, which will see the leaders in the later races, sit one or two metres off the fence in the run.
The best going in the home straight will be hard up against the outside fence. Its unlikely jockeys will head there in the first couple of races, but once the inside deteriorates, the jockeys will be in a race to the grandstand side.
Randwick Race 6 #2 Spin- $14.00
This colt from the Snowden yard ran a solid fourth at his last start over 1200m at Flemington.
The son of noted wet track sire 'I am Invincible' impressed in a recent Randwick trial where he ran hard through the line.
With the expected track bias to suit back-markers the wide draw in barrier 12 is a huge plus, which will afford a soft trail to the outside fence.
With plenty of early speed engaged, jockey James McDonald will ride patiently from the gates, before heading wide when turning for home and charging at them late.
At the $14 fixed odds, Spin looks a fantastic betting proposition, getting the speed map favours.
Randwick Race 7 # 2 Tarka - $8.50
This promising colt from the David Payne yard ran a solid second to Thinkin' Big at his most recent start and will be looking to turn the tables on a heavy surface.
His heavy stats read 1: 1-0-0, with his only heavy run resulting in a victory in the Group 2 Stan Fox at Rosehill, defeating Dealmaker and The Autumn Sun.
Drawn barrier two, look for jockey James McDonald to settle just off the pace with cover, tracking the race favourite and nominated leader Thinkin' Big throughout.
In a big push for improved performance, the blinkers go on this colt for the first time, which is likely to offer further improvement.
With the favourite having to lead them up on a deteriorating track, Tarka will get the perfect run behind and should be able to peel off its heels and finish over the top.
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