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Melbourne Cup 2016 - who does History say will win?

The race that stops the nation has arrived and every man and his dog has already started to give out their tip in the Cup. But there's one bloke who's view has stood the test of time and he won't volunteer his thoughts. So we’ve looked into the 154 years of results from the great race to see who History says will win, and who won't win, the 2016 Melbourne Cup.

Most successful age and sex


5 year old colts and geldings have won The Cup 41 times – Bondi Beach, Exospheric, Grey Lion, Oceanographer and Pentathlon fit this profile. Leaving the sex of the runner of out of the equation, four and five year old thoroughbreds have been most successful in the Melbourne Cup.

Preparation is Key

Three lead-up form races to the Melbourne Cup have produced 11 winners since 2000.

  • Caulfield Cup – Our Ivanhowe, Exospheric, Almoonqith, Jameka, Sir John Hawkwood
  • Cox Plate – Hartnell
  • Geelong Cup – Grey Lion, Oceanographer, Qewy.

Stallions shine

Seven of the past ten Cups have been won by a stallion. In 2016, Our Ivanhowe, Bondi Beach, Exospheric, Almoonqith, Excess Knowledge and Grey Lion are the stallions in the race.

Form down under

More than 50 international thoroughbreds have attempted to win the Melbourne Cup at their first Australian start with only Vintage Crop in 1993 accomplishing that feat. Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave, Heartbreak City and Beautiful Romance will be attempting to expand this lonely club on Tuesday.

Age shall weary them

Since 1938 no horse aged eight years or older has won The Cup, although freak UK stayer Red Cadeaux came very close to breaking that record in the 2014 Cup. On account of this fact, history will be against Sir John Hawkwood, Who Shot The Barman, Curren Mirotic and Wicklow Brave.

Barriers

Over the last ten years barriers 9 through to 12 have produced eight victories which is good news for connections of Grand Marshall, Secret Number, Oceanographer and Hartnell. Barrier 18, which is where Curren Mirotic jumps from, is the only gate that has never produced a winner in the Cup's history.

Add, subtract, multiply and divide – this is how history sees the finish

1st Bondi Beach.
2nd Hartnell
3rd Jameka
4th Oceanographer
5th Exospheric

Check out the latest odds for the Cup and follow a winning punter here.

Michael Gannon

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