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  • 13:11:37 AEST
  • Sunday, 25 February 2018

Caulfield Cup 2016 - facts, form, tips & preview


It's the third and final day of Caulfield's Spring 2016 racing carnival. Caulfield Cup Day this year features no less than seven Group races on a ten race program. The 2016 Caulfield Cup offers connections $3,150,000 in prize money which has attracted four international starters this year. Two from Great Britain, Exospheric and Sir Isaac Newton, one from Ireland, Scottish, and one from France, Articus.

 

Caulfield Cup

The track is currently a Good 3 and should stay that way with no rain in sight. The 2400m starts at the beginning of the home straight, giving runners about 450m to run before negotiating the first turn.

In 2015 New Zealander Mongolian Khan won this race as a four-year-old and has since retired. The year before Admire Rakti won and passed away on Melbourne Cup Day. The last winner to go on to win the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup double was Ethereal in 2001. Is there a Cups double winner amongst this lot?

Form Indicators

We've put this list of interesting historical facts together for you to contemplate before you bet in this year's Caulfield Cup.

  • At the turn of the century racing commentators believed that four-year-old mares were the perfect profile for winning this race having won four straight in the 1970's and then going on to win five Cups between 1985 and 2001. However since Ethereal won in 2001, twenty eight 4yo mares have contested the race with only one winner Southern Speed in 2011. Jameka is the only four-year-old mare in the field this year.
  • Recent form has proven to be a compelling statistic over the years with history showing that 19 of the last 21 winners placed in at least one of their two previous starts.
  • Four-year-olds have had the most success in the Cup. In recent times there have been 27 4yo winners from the last 52 Cups.
  • Four international runners have won the Caulfield Cup in its history.
  • Barriers wider than 13 haven't performed well in recent times with only two winners in the last 23 years.
  • The Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Stakes and The Metropolitan have produced the most local winners.
  • Only six horses have carried more than 56.5kg since 1972 and won the race.

 

 

2016 Caulfield Cup race preview

Caulfield Cup Betting Odds

11. Jameka has had an ideal lead-up to this race. She hit her straps winning the Naturalism two starts back and was then runner-up behind Hartnell in the Turnbull. Won the Crown Oaks last year over 2500m. The barrier is not ideal but she's good enough to overcome it.

4. Scottish is having his first start in Australia. He beat Trip To Paris who ran second in the 2015 Caulfield Cup and ran within two lengths of Highland Reel over this trip last year. He is well drawn to take his preferred forward position in the running and will appreciate the firm track. Kerrin McEvoy rides. He is one of the more experienced riders of European horses, winning this race on Irish Godolphin horse All The Good back in 2008.

12. Real Love finished 6 lengths behind Jameka in the Naturalism but gets a 1.5kg weight advantage here. She was very good winning the JRA Cup by 3 lengths. Has won up to 2600m and shapes up as a real contender.

9. Articus hasn't raced since July. Has won at Group level up to 2000m. Placed twice and won twice from five starts this year. Likes to settle back and shows a good turn of foot which should be suited to this race. If he can get the 2400m he will be right in this.

3. Exospheric boasts wins up to 2400m and finished close to horses like Big Orange and Highland Peel. He won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket at 2414m back in April by 4 lengths over Simple Verse. Handles firm ground.

5. Sir Isaac Newton finished fourth to Highland Reel in a Group 1 in Ascot UK in July at 2400m. Wasn't flash at his latest go in the G1 Irish Championship. Prefers the track with some give in it.

8. Sir John Hawkwood showed a lot of guts to win the Metrop after leading at a good clip. Finished in front of Real Love in the Brisbane Cup over 2400m last prep. Top contender.

10. Tally finished 1.3 lengths behind Jameka in the Australian Derby back in April and meets her 1.5 kg better here. Barrier not ideal but not without hope.

15. Sacred Master found himself at the back of the field after jumping from an outside barrier. Then closed fast making good ground to finish 1.6 lengths behind Sir John Hawkwood in the Metrop who he meets 1kg better in this race. Genuine chance.

1. Preferment hasn't gone anywhere near his best this prep. Finished far behind Jameka in the Turnbull. Hard to see where the improvement will come from.

2. Our Ivanhowe looked okay in the Makybe Diva over 1400m but then didn't go past a horse in the straight from the rear in the Turnbull. Ran third in this race last year and competition is less fierce this year but needs to lift.

6. Tarzino hasn't finished closer than 6 lengths from the winner in four runs back this preparation. Running out of excuses.

13. Set Square finished well behind Jameka in the Naturalism after covering ground in the run and then never in Turnbull finishing at the tail of the field.

17. Pemberley ran third in the Herbert Power at this distance. Drops to 50.5kg but jumps from the car park.

7. Almoonqith. Had excuses for each of his first two runs but struggled to find another one when eighth in the Bart Cummings. Winner of the 2015 Geelong Cup over this distance but doesn't seem to be travelling as well this prep.

14. Big Memory was just beaten in the Herbert Power when putting up a tough fight. Finished 2.8 lengths behind Admire Rakti in the 2014 Caulield Cup - a stronger field than this one. Can surprise.

19. De Little Engine looks like he wants this distance now. Motored home in the Turnbull with fast closing splits. Should be coming home late.

18. Go Dreaming another who looks more suited with the extra distance here. An outside light weight chance.

20. Vengeur Masque hard to see him come close but his odds look overs all the same.

The Verdict

1st Jameka really stands out for mine. There's plenty of talent amongst the International runners but it's either the distance, firmness of the ground or recent form that makes it hard to give them the nod over this girl. Her barrier is not ideal but I think she will overcome it with the entire Caulfield straight for Hall to play with up to the first turn.

2nd Big Memory has had a similar preparation to his 2014 Caulfield Cup run when he finished 2.8 length behind the winner. That same run probably wins the race this year.

3rd Exospheric makes most appeal amongst the International contenders for mine and should make a fist of it.

4th Sir John Hawkwood. Expecting another honest effort and no doubting where this bloke's heart can take him.

5th Sacred Master

 

Check-out what Australia's racing media experts and punters think about the Caulfield Cup in the horse racing tip market. Every tipster has validated profit statistics.

Mike Steward

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