Racing Ground

07/10/2016 Horse Racing Tips

Early betting moves for Caulfield Guineas Day 2016

Selections were provided for seven races at Randwick last week finding just one winner. Our attention goes to the Caulfield Guineas and Randwick meetings racing this Saturday, which includes a stack of Group 1 action for punters to get stuck into.

We attribute the success we've had since launching this report earlier in the year to the sound logic that we use to identify "Smart Money". We look at each runner who has experienced an early betting move and assess their chances of winning. Early betting moves are often, but not always, the result of smart punters who have identified signficant overs in the initial markets set by bookmakers.

Caulfield Early Betting Moves

betting moves at Caulfield

Platinum has his first start as a two-year-old. Early betting moves are strong indicators in races like these.

Miss Wahoo looked good at her only trial at Cranbourne in September. First career start.

Spoils won her Cranbourne trial with a good turn of foot and without being pressed. Debuts here.

Howard Be Thy Name won the G1 SA Derby earlier in the year at 2500m then ran second to Mackintosh at 2200m last prep. Was okay over shorter in the Underwood at his recent outing. Working up to this distance and fitter for third run back from a spell.

In The Vanguard resumes after winning a trial in Sydney. Her debut win beating Earth by 2.5 lengths looks very good for this race. Top chance.

Hear The Chant impressed on debut when she won on a slow track. Forget her first-up miss this preparation when she was severely blocked for a run. Chance.

Rageese thrashed his rivals when second-up last preparation in Listed company. Got back from a wide barrier first-up at Caulfield where there was on-pace bias. Fitter and gets to a more favourable distance here. Contender.

Shiedel beat Under The Louvre in April and has looked solid in both runs back this prep. Distance, fitness and track record are all plusses. Her recent performance rates highly. Top hope.

Whispering Brook should benefit from even weights here after 58.5 kg looked the telling factor in the latter stages of her recent outing. Fitter for third run back.

Missrock made good ground second-up after getting back from barrier 12 at Caulfield last start. Gets in better in the weights here. Chance.

Sacred Elixir finished last preparation winning the G1 JJ Atkins over the mile by 3.5 lengths. Started where he left off winning the Guineas Prelude first-up. Expect an improvement on that run with distance and fitness working in his favour. In this.

Royal Rapture. Five wins in-a-row last week in somewhat easier grade. His Flemington win two starts ago provides a benchmark at this level with second place Tally running third behind star horse Hartnell in the Turnbull last week. Drops 4kg from that race. Drawn to get a nice sit. Top chance.

Star Turn should jump and sit just off the speed. Has been most impressive this preparation running a close second to the very smart Astern at his recent outing. Hard to beat.

Randwick early betting moves

Randwick Betting Moves

Showtime was second in a recent barrier trial at Warwick Farm ridden easily and not asked at any stage. First career run.

Reach For Heaven didn't handle the heavy track first-up and then finished strongly at his recent outing to win easily at Newcastle. Makes appeal.

Pecans finished 2.4 lengths behind Invincibella last start safely held but meets her 2.5 kilograms better here. Some chance.

Signposted ended a winning steak after receiving competition up front from Fabrizio last start and finishing runner-up. That run rates highly in this race. Can win again, especially if he gets his way in front.

More To Gain has performed well in easier grade carrying big weight. Showed a good turn of fit at his recent outing when he came home fastest in the straight. Has claims.

Darci's Affair comes into contention on the back of his most recent outing when finishing 1.2 lengths third over the mile in a mid-week Warwick Farm BM72 race. Drops 6.5 kg from that run here.

Mysticism looks an interesting first-up assignment over 1600m. Won fresh last prep over 1400m at the Gold Coast and early market moves are a good sign.

Flitero goes into contention on the back of his recent effort when finishing fourth a length away after racing wide with no cover. Fitter for his fourth run back. Chance.

Thunder Down Under ran well two starts ago over 2000m in Saturday grade at Randwick. Didn't appreciate the drop to 1600m last start. Makes appeal back to this distance.

Honeywine makes appeal here after finishing a close second to Veladero in the G3 Gloaming. Chance.

Retaliation also comes out of the Gloaming finishing a close fourth. Has to be considered on that run.

Tumultuous was another who finished within a length of Veladero. He found interference in the straight which could have cost him the race. In this.

Lady Le Fay has a great record over the mile. Was fast home in the straight at her recent outing finishing a close fifth. Top contender.

Dixie Blossoms. Form looks good behind Tycoon Tara last start doing a bit of work early from a wide barrier. Was good fresh behind Pearls and forgive her run in between those. Has claims.

Taillevent has raced solidly in Brisbane this preparation, jumping wide in his last three outings. Market lead is encouraging.

 

Get comments, speed maps, staking plan and tips for this Saturday's Caulfield Guineas meeting from Deane Lester here. Deane is one of Australia's most respected form analysts.

 

Mike Steward

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Author Biography

Mike Steward

Mike Steward

Mike has an entrenched love for a flutter having grown up in country Victoria. Blessed with a numerical mind, he has a passion for identifying trends and patterns within betting markets, always on the lookout for opportunities to fill punters’ wallets.

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