Form Lay

Horse racing Lays of the Day 18 January 2020

Tagged: James Beeson

Pure Poison Prices

We managed to get both hot-pots beaten last week, when The Candy Man caved in under the big weight and Bumper Blast blew like a gale in betting and raced accordingly to finish 7 of 8. 

That made it 18 successful lays from our last 20 selections, as we picked up where we left off in 2019.

This week we are taking on the favourite in the feature at Flemington, who arrives following a flattering last start win. 

At Rosehill we have found one at poison odds, who appears likely to experience a torrid run and be posted wide throughout.  

 

Flemington Race 5 #1 All Too Royal $3.10

Jumps significantly in weight for this (up 4.5kgs to 58.5kgs) and strikes a small yet good quality field.

He has been supported in early betting markets but I doubt that is the professional sharps. It is most likely to be the soft money of the well heeled ownership group having a decent sized bet. 

The rider will want to be close here, however I expect him to be out-sprinted early by Sartorial Splendor and Time To Reign. This means that the gelding will be a high risk of over-racing if he's restrained.

The first-up win at Caulfield was good when sitting wide, although it was a flattering result condsidering he raced in a part of the track that played well all day. Lay. 

 

Rosehill Race 3 #1 Lashes $1.80 

Has come up poison odds here, in a race that has plenty of on-pace horses engaged.

Being second-up, I suspect that they will want to position close to speed. However, she is a huge risk of being posted wide if those drawn underneath show their customary dash.

Following the ultra impressive Kensington first-up win, the mugs have locked on and failed to recognise that she beat a very moderate field on that occasion. 

Back up to a weight of 59kg is also a concern, especially when the horse prefers racing close to the speed.   

She looks in for a torrid wide run and is currently well under the odds. Avoid. 

We've got tips from Australia's racing media and professional punters on our best bets page at theGreatTipOff.com.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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