Racing returns to Ascot this Saturday following a weekend down at Pinjarra, which should be our second 'metro' track if you ask me, but that's for another day.
A perfect sunny 28 degrees is predicted in Perth on Saturday. The track will be rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 5 metres the entire course.
With winds tending Southerly, I'm looking for runners who settle midfield with cover and a good turn of foot.
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Race 4 GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP 1600m (BM68+)
The speed here is expected to be good with Patristic and Butterlea Lad rolling along in front, with Son Of Bacchus taking a sit behind that pair.
Star Value(7) has returned in tremendous order after an almost two year injury lay-off. He flashed home over the unsuitable 1200m first-up and was then held up at a crucial stage second-up, but managed to finish strongly when clear.
He's reaching peak fitness now third-up and will appreciate the strong tempo. Jarrad Noske should be able to sit three pairs back and can finish over the top of them.
Son Of Bacchus(2) does everything right in his races except win! This looks his race off a strong run 7 days ago, but it's getting too risky to back him at the short quote. Gets the perfect run behind the speed here and will have every chance again.
Patristic (5) is racing extremely well this prep, rolling along in front and giving nothing else a chance. With 52kg on his back after the claim, he is the one they will have to catch.
Skinnen Tins (6) was enormous first up, no better than 4 wide the trip and still finished well over an unsuitable distance. Maps to get the 1x1 here and has a good second-up record. At the mile, he is not without a chance.
Race 4 Tips
1stStar Value
2ndSon Of Bacchus
3rdPatristic
4thSkinnen Tins
Race 6 DAVID DELLA ROCCA HANDICAP 2100 (1MW 58+)
As with all our staying races, the speed here will be slow. Magic Las Vegas should lead, with The Cat Ratcher breezing and Alimentaria box-seating behind them.
Alimentaria (3) has really gone from strength to strength this prep and maps to get the box seat in a slowly run race. He loses the 3kg claim and concedes 1.5kg to Mackenzie Brooke who beat this mare by 1 length last time out. However, Pike alone is worth more than that. I expect him to be turning the tables here.
Mackenzie Brooke (5) has always shown staying ability and now that she has matured a bit, she's really come on strongly after stringing two wins together. Does have to carry 60kg for the first time, but she looks the main danger to Alimentaria in this.
Barbie Will Do (9) is another who seems to be maintaining consistent form over the staying trips. A dominant winner last start after a soft run, she looks ready to acquit herself well here. However, she's likely to give Alimentaria and Mackenzie Brooke a head start given she'll be forced back from the wide draw.
Plays The Game(11) was beaten 4.2 lengths in the Perth Cup. It will be interesting to see what tactics they adopt here.
Race 6 Tips
1stAlimentaria
2ndMackenzie Brooke
3rdBarbie Will Do
4thPlays The Game
Race 8 SEACORP HANDICAP 1000m (72+)
Expect the speed to be average here. Saracino looks the logical leader, Chix Pic and Rebel Yell will be handy. Does Plutocracy breeze or drag back?
Essential Spice (4) is a clear top pick here. She chased home gun mare Fabergino gallantly in the Summer Scorcher in sizzling time. Chris Graham takes 3kg off her back and has previously had success on this mare. She maps to be one out and two back, and from there with natural luck, she should be winning this comfortably.
Chix Pic (3) was very good behind the low-flying Carocapo and Dance Music, who has franked that formline with a win in the Mandurah Cup. Drops in grade and maps for a very soft run and is the logical danger to Essential Spice.
Undisclosed (9) is another that Team Webster have flying right now. She was run off her feet in the Summer Scorcher and will appreciate less tempo. She will have to snag back from the wide draw and does concede 2kg to Essential Spice out of the Scorcher, but will be finishing strongly.
Rebel Yell (7) with the right run can always impress, and he should get that here. He meets Essential Spice 3.5kg better for their last meeting and picks up the services of Pike. He should have admirers.
Race 8 Tips
1stEssential Spice
2ndChix Pic
3rdUndisclosed
4thRebel Yell
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Justin has a strong knowledge of WA provincial and metropolitan tracks and thoroughbreds. He limits his focus to this area of racing as his experience has indicated that it is more predictable. Justin's analysis identifies trends in runners and applies speed maps and sectional data to find his winners. He assesses markets and looks for value runners to back.
Race 4 Tips
