Form Lay

11/01/20 Horse racing Lays of the Day

Big weight not so sweet for Candy

After finishing 2019 with 16 successful lays from 18 selections, we look to kick off 2020 where we left off by identifying horses that appear under the odds.

This week’s runners to avoid include a Queensland cult hero, who will be asked to carry a big weight against better quality.

At Flemington we are happy to pot the favourite in the feature race, due to the sharp class rise and lack of tempo. 

Expect a market drift for both runners.  

 

Gold Coast Race 3 #1 The Candy Man $2.10

Has strong local form, following back-to-back wins against the Brisbane B and C graders. However, he now strikes some quality for the first time in a while here.

He is asked to carry 61.5kg again and although successful last start, he will need to be at his absolute best to lump that and win against this better quality field.  

Due to the big weight, if they attempt to find a midfield position from gate 9 and get trapped wide throughout, it will be a near impossible task to win.

The horse has a cult following now with the non-price sensitive mug punter and he is certain to be well under the odds across all totes. 

As market liquidity builds close to start time, I expect the bigger syndicates to take him on. Avoid. 

 

Flemington Race 7 #5 Bumper Blast $2.20

Did not beat much to my eye last start, and was completely blessed by the hot tempo up front after finding the perfect off-speed position to run-on.

I’m terrified of his SP profile, where it was one of the biggest gapping moves in betting you will see last start ($3.70 into $2.90 late).

However, this is his first try in stakes grade and I’m more than happy to be against him at the poison odds.

There is plenty of quality here and I doubt he is suited by the small field, where the tempo looks slow. 

He had the ideal slingshot run last time out and was very flattered. 

Expect it to be much harder here. Lay. 

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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