Horse Racing Strategy default

Weight in Horse Racing - 5 punting tips

Horse Racing Jockey weight

One of the most discussed form factors in horse racing is the weight that a horse carries in a race.

  • How much does weight influence the outcome of a race?
  • How should punters assess the different weights that a horse carries from one race to another?
  • What difference does set weights and weight-for-age conditions make on race assessments?

These and many more questions run through a punter's mind every time they study the form resulting in a plethora of formula's, rules-of-thumb and laws that punters have developed to simplify the challenge. We've combed through our research, including actual statistical models that we are developing for a new ratings formula that we will soon introduce to theGreatTipOff.com, to provide you with 5 Punting Tips when considering weight in a race.

 

#1 Horses have a weight carrying capacity

Scientists in the USA conducted intensive studies to measure the effects of various factors relating to horse racing in the 90's. One of those studies set-out to identify various relationships between the horse and the weight it carried (The Impact of Weight on Performance of a Race Horse - Larry Wellman Dec '99). One of the key findings coming out of this work was that horses do have a capacity to carry weight. The study found it relates to the horse's size and oxygen consumption level.

The physics is a little too heavy to get involved in when you are on the punt, but with this proven fact in mind, it does give punters an opportunity to better understand where the weight carrying limit might lie for a race horse and use that information when assessing it's chances in a race.

Identifying the weight carried for a runner's best performances is a useful first-step. Looking through recent runs and identifying the horse's highest carried weight in races where the horse has either won, placed or put in a strong run in higher grades is likely to give you an idea of a level where the horse has not reached it's weight capacity.

Looking at a series of races where higher weights were carried with noteable under-performance, is another way of identifying peak weight carrying capacity.

 

#2 Weight impacts a horse more over further distances

This is probably obvious to most punters, but how many times do you actually look at weight and distance together when assessing a horse's chances of winning a race? The same study that looked at the impact of weight on race horses, referred to above, proved that the longer a race lasts, the greater the impact that weight has on a race horse. With the significance of the impact increasing the longer the race goes.

The effect of 1kg of weight on a race horse over 1200m triples at a distance of 2600m.

Larry Wellman Dec '99


This evidence suggests that punters need to place greater emphasis on weight over longer distance races.


 

#3 Set Weights and Weight-For-Age

I am always surprised by how many punters don't look at set weights or weight-for-age races differently to Handicap races. The simple message here is that if the race is being weighted by the sex and age of the horse rather than it's class, there is likely to be some genuine advantage given to the class horses in the race particularly if they are in-form. Form expert Paul Joice makes this point in his article Why Punters Love Set Weights and Penalty Races. He goes on to provide evidence that the extent of the full advantage given to class horses in these races is rarely reflected in its odds giving punters a clear value opportunity.

 

#4 Weight, Class and Form

One of the most frequent questions I hear from punters is how to allow for weight, performance and race grade when assessing a horse's past performance. It's one of the biggest challenges that punters face. TheGreatTipOff.com team are currently working on a ratings system which aims to score each runners relative potential in a race with a particular focus on the relationship between these three factors. While there are other factors that can impact the outcome of a race, we are seeing a noticeable pattern between these three form indicators. We'll be reporting on it soon and then releasing it to our betting interface.

 

#5 Relative vs Absolute Weights

Absolute Weight is important when you consider a horse' capacity to handle weight but when you are trying to assess the impact of weight on performance, Relative Weight is a more useful measure. For example if a horse carried 56kg in a race and the lightest weight in the race was 52kg, absolute weight would be scored at 56 while relative weight is scored at 4 (i.e. 4 kg over the minimum weight). The thinking here is that a runner's result in a race is relative to all the other runners and therefore it's weight should be considered as such when rating a run.



We would welcome any thoughts or comments that you have on this article or your own experiences assessing weight on the punt. Please send them to [email protected]

Mike Steward

Share On:

Top Stories

13/7/20 Best horse racing tips today

Tamworth plays host to provincial racing in NSW on Monday, with a very strong 7-race card ahead.  The .....

Jul 13, 2020 10:00AM
READ MORE

11/7/20 Harness racing tips for Saturday night

Harness Racing Tips from Michael Johnson Punters who backed each of Michael's tips with $100 win bets over the past 3.....

Jul 11, 2020 12:05PM
READ MORE

11/7/20 Racing.com Tips review

Racing.com Tipster Weekly Wonders  Tom Haylock (NSW) $1,620 cash profit, 52% POT Follow.....

Jul 11, 2020 08:57AM
READ MORE

10/7/20 SKY Racing Tips review

SKY Racing Tipster Weekly Wonders  Priscilla Looker (NSW) $1,910 cash profit, 96% POT F.....

Jul 10, 2020 06:19PM
READ MORE

Racing News Topics


Tweets by @theGreatTipOff

Top 5 Tipsters

1.
596% POT
Get Tips
2.  angela66
PUNTER
502% POT
3.  Josh2565
PRO
490% POT
4.  PuntersTrust..
PRO
433% POT
5.  osc1gem
PRO
350% POT
View Full Leaderboard

Next Race to Jump

PUKEKOHE PARK R1 Tip
PUKEKOHE PARK R2 Tip
PUKEKOHE PARK R3 Tip
PUKEKOHE PARK R4 Tip
SONODA R1 Tip
GAWLER R1 Tip
HOOSIER PARK R2 Tip
MOHAWK R1 Tip
HOOSIER PARK R3 Tip
YONKERS R1 Tip
GEORGIAN DOWN.. R1 Tip
MOHAWK R2 Tip
HATRICK R1 Tip
HATRICK R2 Tip
HATRICK R3 Tip
HATRICK R4 Tip
HATRICK R5 Tip
THE MEADOWS R1 Tip

More Racing news you might like

10/7/20 SKY Racing Tips review

SKY Racing Tipster Weekly Wonders  Priscilla Looker (NSW) $1,910 cash profit, 96% POT F.....

READ MORE

10/7/20 David Gately Tips & Best Bets review

David Gately showed punters again why he's one of the best horse racing tipsters in the game last Saturday. With a ti.....

READ MORE

11/7/20 Free horse racing tips and best bets

Free horse racing tips from Rick Morris Rick's tips have delivered punters 12% Profit on Turnover over the past 365 d.....

READ MORE

11/7/20 Horse racing tips from early market movers

Punters have been active in early markets at both key venues this week, with significant betting plunges seen on bo.....

READ MORE

11/7/20 Rosehill Tips and Best Bets

Rosehill plays host to a cracking card this Saturday with nine races for punters to devour. Fine weather is predicted.....

READ MORE

11/7/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

The boys went one from two last week, when Godolphin's Talleur $2.25 managed to real in Switched on the line.  This w.....

READ MORE

Copyright  © 2020 S92 thegreattipoff.com
Stay in Control. For gambling help call 1800 858 858 or your local State gambling helpline, Gamblers Help, Mission Australia or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Users must be at least 18 years old.

TheGreatTipOff.com (the "site) is not a bookmaking or wagering website. As such the site does not provide bookmaking or wagering services. We are a tipping and information service site. If you choose to take tips or use information on this website, you acknowledge and agree that you will only wager with licensed service providers for your jurisdiction. For help call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Our full Terms and Conditions are listed here.