22/01/2010 Horse Racing Tips

This week we took a look at Australia's pro tipsters who tip in each race on the program and have still turned in a reasonable performance. Where conventional opinion amongst punters and tipsters tends to stress the importance of knowing which races to tip in and which ones to let go, these tipsters are having a go in each race regardless of the field size, class or other unknowns, and still providing us with value or getting close to the black.

We started our analysis by constructing a list of the tipsters who tip in each race at a particular meeting and have a Win Profit percentage greater than -10%. The rationale here is that this performance range is reasonable for someone who covers the whole program each week.

Shane Anderson, from 927 Sports, shows how special his performance has been since we started recording his tips back in mid 2009. During this time Shane has consistently provided a selection in each Melbourne race on Saturdays without indicating specials or best bets, unlike his colleagues and competitors who are providing one to three tips at most, for any given race meeting. In the face of this challenge Shane has achieved second place on the leader board with a win profit of 44%.

Grant Morgan and Chris Nelson from Best Bets also provide a selection in each Brisbane and Sydney race respectively, without any indication of specials or best bets. On the odd occasion they are given the privilege of taking the spot light position as Best Bets' anchor tipster where they are able to discuss their confidence in their various selections.  Stephen Moran and Howard Walter, the regular Best Bets anchor tipsters for Melbourne and Brisbane, use this privilege well by indicating which races to bet in, which races to take multiples and which to let go.

Mark Hunter, who is from the same stable as Shane Anderson at 927 Sports, has built a reputation from tipping a large percentage of winners from his tip in each Melbourne weekend race. Many a story has been told of weekend's where Mark has tipped a perfect card,unfortunately he has not delivered this result since we began recording his tips back in June last year.

Shayne OCass also seems to like to tip them all.  He tips in Sydney's Telegraph along side several of his colleagues who, unlike Shayne, indicate their their three best tips of the day.  Despite this challenge Shayne has managed to sit close to the profit line, often turning in upward of three winners on a card.

These performances certainly throw a cat amongst the pigeons for those strong advocates of the theory that successful tipping is based on knowing which races to let go. The alternative view from this analysis  might be however that the 'tip them all' approach handicaps the tipster.  That these results are indicative of performances that could be a lot better if the tipsters were selective about the races they chose to tip in. This alternative view suggests that Shane Anderson's 44% profit score and second position on the leader board could potentially be a lot higher if and when he decides to let the odd one go. We will certainly keep these thoughts in mind when we catch up with Shane in a few weeks time for our feature article.