LESSON 1 The Competence versus Deviance Hypothesis
Well, it's not actually a hypothesis. I've been around long enough now to know
this is a reality:
"The more competency you have as an individual, the more deviance in you
will be tolerated by society "
I could talk for hours to you about this but it would be wasted I can see.
Essentially it means you should concentrate your life around the skills and
attributes that YOU have, that not EVERYBODY has, but is NEEDED and WANTED by
OTHERS (i.e. Competence). If you are good at maths, focus on that; if you are
good at predicting events, go with that; if you are good at art or running or
music, go with that and develop the skill further. DONT focus on your DEVIANCE
(what you fail to do well, or can't do, or things that bring you negative attention).
A good punter in life will invariably utilize the talents he or she possesses.
If you are not good with basic stats then don't try using the Don Scott ratings
method. Find an approach that suits your competence (skills or attributes that
you have, that not everybody has, but is wanted and needed by others).
Shouldn't I practice things I'm not good at??
NO! Not if you are going to then neglect your competence. It makes no sense.
The world NEEDS you and your COMPETENCE. it doesn't want you focusing on what
your not good at!
So.....if I'm good at maths at school but no good at English I should focus
Now you're getting it!! The more competence you can show the more deviance
will be tolerated in you by society in general. Competence gives you access
to the community, it gives you contacts and it gives you QUALITY OF LIFE (regardless
of your deviance)
What do you mean "deviance"??
DEVIANCE is anything that brings you negative attention. It might be getting
caught picking your nose, it might be some strange behaviour, your appearance
or your inability to complete basic life tasks. Without competence, deviance
can be devastating, but WITH competence, deviance can be almost irrelevant.
What has this stuff got to do with me making money??
Focus your punting approaches around your competence as an individual. If you
think you are good at mystical predicting, then focus your strategies around
'feel' and whatever you use to predict the future. If you are strong at stats
USE that competence. If you can read animal behaviour USE that skill. If you
can READ trainers body behaviour USE that competence (not that they are good
judges). Punting is about getting an edge in value via an edge in approach,
not following the crowd.
PLEASE REMEMBER IN EVERYTHING YOU DO AND WHEN EDUCATING YOUR CHILDREN: FOCUS
ON YOUR COMPETENCE..WHAT YOU DO WELL...THEN DO IT BETTER AND BETTER....YOU HAVE
A RESPONSIBILITY TO YOUR COMMUNITY TO USE THAT SKILL OR ATTRIBUTE. DON'T WASTE
YOUR TIME FOCUSING ON DEVIANCE
LESSON 2 Slowing Down
This is REALLY tough in today's world, but if you can just practice it the
world of punting is yours. I will not go into the details of why as I'm not
sure you've grasped Lesson 1 yet so just follow me blindly for now. I want you
to do this:
1. Find a task you do either every day or a few times a week and slow it down
2. Ok - you go and get the paper every Sunday morning and the walk takes you
20 minutes. I want you to do it next Sunday and take the same route but take
100 minutes! It might be your walk to work which takes 30 minutes....do it but
take 150 minutes.
3. Do this 5 fold trick twice a week for 3 months (less than 1% of people will
do it so I don't hold much hope)
4. When taking your stroll 5 times slower use your time to check the guttering,
the houses, the smells, the leaves on the ground, the insects. Where are the
ant nests? Are they active? Is it going to rain? What birds are about? Why are
Mrs Smiths blinds still closed? Say hello to old Bart. SLOW.
The best punters in the world are experts at SLOW! It needs practice. Experience
in SLOW gives you respect for the world, gives you patience and makes you LESS
likely to make impulsive errors. Some other hints on goal setting follow:
(a) Choose the mountain (goal) you want to climb: don’t
pay attention to what other people say, such as “that one’s more
beautiful” or “this one’s easier”. You’ll be spending
lots of energy and enthusiasm to reach your objective, so you’re the only
one responsible and you should be sure of what you’re doing.
(b) Know how to get close to it: mountains are often seen
from far off – beautiful, interesting, full of challenges. But what happens
when we try to draw closer? Roads run all around them, flowers grow between
you and your objective, what seemed so clear on the map is tough in real life.
So try all the paths and all the tracks until eventually one day you’re
standing in front of the top that you yearn to reach.
(c) Learn from someone who has already been up there: no matter
how unique you feel, there is always someone who has had the same dream before
you and ended up leaving marks that can make your journey easier; places to
hang the rope, trails, broken branches to make the walking easier. The climb
is yours, so is the responsibility, but don’t forget that the experience
of others can help a lot. Just because they have been there does NOT make them
better than you.
(d) When seen up close, dangers are controllable: when you
begin to climb the mountain of your dreams, pay attention to the surroundings.
There are cliffs, of course. There are almost imperceptible cracks in the mountain
rock. There are stones so polished by storms that they have become as slippery
as ice. But if you know where you are placing each footstep, you will notice
the traps and how to get around them. Practice being SLOW again!
(e) The landscape changes, so enjoy it: of course, you have
to have an objective in mind – to reach the top. But as you are going
up, more things can be seen, and it’s no bother to stop now and again
and enjoy the panorama around you. At every meter conquered, you can see a little
further, so use this to discover things that you still had not noticed.
(f) Respect your body: you can only climb a mountain if you
give your body the attention it deserves. You have all the time that life grants
you, as long as you walk without demanding what can’t be granted. If you
go too fast you will grow tired and give up half way there. Enjoy the scenery,
take delight in the cool spring water and the fruit that nature generously offers
you, but keep on walking.....slowly.
(g) Respect your soul: don’t keep repeating “I’m
going to make it”. Your soul already knows that, what it needs is to use
the long journey to be able to grow, stretch along the horizon, touch the sky.
An obsession does not help you at all to reach your objective, and even ends
up taking the pleasure out of the climb (see Gamblers Help). But pay attention:
also, don’t keep saying “it’s harder than I thought”,
because that will make you lose your inner strength.
(h) Be prepared to climb one kilometer more: the way up to
the top of the mountain is always longer than you think. Don’t fool yourself,
the moment will arrive when what seemed so near is still very far. But since
you were prepared to go beyond, this is not really a problem.
(i) Be happy when you reach the top: cry, clap your hands,
shout to the four winds that you did it, let the wind - (the wind is always
blowing up there so be careful!)- purify your mind, refresh your tired and sweaty
feet, open your eyes, clean the dust from your heart. It feels so good, what
was just a dream before, a distant vision, is now part of your life, you did
(j) Make a promise: now that you have discovered a force that
you were not even aware of, tell yourself that from now on you will use this
force for the rest of your days. Preferably, also promise to discover another
mountain, and set off on another adventure.
PRACTICE GOING SLOW!!! Map out 4 square metres of your backyard. Sit down for
30 minutes and study it in minute detail. Smell it, scratch it, dig it up a
bit, stare at it, write about it! Work around your garden until you know why
and how it works. Its a different perspective that gets you value!
Lesson 3 Pursuers of the Possible
versus Predictors of the Inevitable
"I am telling you - it doesn't matter what we do it will happen again
anyway. " .....does this ring a bell? This is a Predictor of the inevitable
speaking. They state the bleeding obvious, engender apathy, they say "we
told you so", use no energy in their life if they can help it, and offer
no new solutions. "Been there, done that" sort of people.
To get true value in your punting and in life generally, you need to surround
yourself with Pursuers of the Possible and avoid Predictors of the Inevitable.
Here is a little table that might help you remember who to make contacts with
and to build your Favour Bank..
REDICTORS OF THE INEVITABLE PURSUERS OF THE POSSIBLE
We are helpless to change Have confidence in themselves & others
"Told you so" They try to gain support
These people are apathetic Pursuers are not always successful
"Been there done that"! Pursuers make more errors in life
"You're wasting your time" Their record of predicting events is
Their prophesy often becomes reality as good as predictors
It takes no energy It takes energy to pursue the possible
Even though the record for telling the future is not as good as predictors,
it is better to test your strength and be wrong than believe in weakness and
be right. Anyone that has lived knows the Predictors in their lives. Most of
us at some stage become Predictors of the Inevitable when we age so if you are
40+ Be warned! . Become aware of when you slip into this mode and seek to become
a Pursuer. Surround yourself with Pursuers whilst you still actively listen
to the Predictors. Within a week you will inwardly smile at the Predictors statements
and move forward with ease
Lesson 4 Don't Bet!
What?...Isn't this what the site is all about?
Yes...we bet...BUT...the MOST important lesson and learning is knowing when
NOT TO BET and this is most of the time. The Tajodds website avoids the dangerous
or risky races where there are too many unknown factors like horses coming off
wet track from, first up or second up form, or where many runners have suffered
checks or wide running so it is hard to assess their chances. We also avoid
races where we assess too many chances.
Yeah, Yeah...heard it all before! Be selective etc etc etc
You hear but you don't act. You decide to stick only with the Ace Tip but then
you see the Biggest Value Horse making money and you jump ship....then you follow
Deano...then a mate who has a maiden in at Geelong. You just don't learn do
But you're no fun!
Yes I am ....see...I can smile! Just TRY something and stick with it for once!
If you NEED more action...employ it! Make some rules for selections. Here is
- Do your own form however you do it...I don't care if it is on names, colours,
number patterns ...whatever...but have some ownership
- Select a few horses you like based ONLY on your assumptions
- Filter these by using a quality rater (e.g. Tajodds or Expertform). If Tajodds
doesn't rate them a chance then wipe them.
- Set a price you are prepared to take for your bet or use the Tajodds price.
- Back your horses with 2.5 % of a REAL bank. If you only have $100 that is
$2.50 folks! I mean it! Don't pretend because even the Ace Tip who has increased
the bank over 1000% has had a run of outs of 17 in the last year! Be Warned!
- This point is too tough for you I know. Stick with your rules for 12 months.
- Do it today. Draw up your rules, monitor your bets, set up your separate
bank account, avoid the tips even ours! Don't just try...DO IT! If you need
action, employ it , but with good rules.
- DON"T bet if you can't get your price! I know it is annoying when your
selection wins and you opted out but this rule is vital. We often rate horses
well on top that also become our LAY OF THE DAY because they are far too short
in the market. They move from horses to invest on to horses to avoid! NEVER
just bet on selections or tips...make sure you set a minimum price you are
willing to take.
- NEVER bet under even money ($2.00)
Lesson 5: 20 Points of Wisdom
20 Words of Wisdom come from making mistakes and having success and watching
and knowing some of the best punters in the land, and some who thought they
were and are now broke.
- DON"T be like a sheep and follow the money. IGNORE the market movers
and stick to your decision and facts. 90% of horses that win races drift in
the market and you end up with better value.
- NEVER bet on heavy tracks, but more importantly NEVER bet when tracks are
deteriorating or slippery. Horses hate it and form goes out the window.
- Leave maiden horses alone. Horses are herd animals and some just never want
to win despite their ability.
- Don't bet on horses first up. Even the trainers don't really know how they
will go fresh against fitter opposition.
- Beware of 'systems' that just list rules to follow. These have usually been
put together based on history that doesn't repeat (at least whilst you use
- If you bet for fun only, be prepared to lose your investment and consider
- If you bet for profit you need a business plan, high discipline and sound
tools (selection and staking methods)
- Nearly all punters lose because of poor staking consistency, lack of a bank,
and faith in their method during runs of outs. The Ace Tip is the best selection
tip in Australia, but it can have a run of outs like any other.
- Use speed maps to find which horses can lead off a moderate pace and give
these horses a big bonus when doing your form.
- Some jockeys actually ride better from a wide draw (e.g. B Rawiller). Give
these horses a bonus if drawn wide.
- Some jockeys love to lead and rate their horses (e.g. Gauci). Use the speed
maps to find if their horses can lead off a moderate pace and allocate a big
bonus if so.
- Don't back favourites in Class 1 races if they have just come off a good
maiden win. The nearly always represent poor value.
- Don't bet on horses under $2.00 even if you or Tajodds has rated them shorter.
Over many years of Australian racing these horses represent poor betting value.
- Zabeel 3yo fillies over 1400 are well worth a look
- Zabeel horses jumping from 1400 to 2000 or further can improve much more
than other breeds in general. We often allocate 6kg improvement with success.
- Weight can stop a train, but it stops classy horses less than average horses.
The high class horse has the ability to carry weights more efficiently, so
don't get stuck in pure handicapping mode and miss the best horse in the race.
- Barriers are not as important as trainers and punters think they are. After
many years of assessing and checking results, it is the position in running
that is important and barrier advantage/disadvantage is related to that position.
- Never chase your losses, or use suicidal plans where you increase bets until
you win. That is the worst staking method of all and causes suicide! NEVER
increase bets just because you had a win, unless it is part of your long term
plan and based on a % of your bank.
- Don't listen to jockeys or owners as they are the worst judges.
- Don't risk heavy investment on a horse unless the jockey is very competent