Method Detail
Untitled Document
This method selects horse races today
where there is a greater likelihood of success by assessing the degree of
uncertainty associated with each race. I combine this approach to selecting
the races with an approach for selecting runners in the chosen races based
on form. The theory is for races with less uncertainty the form is more likely
to stand-up.
I analyse each race and
assign 'Uncertainty points' based on factors that add to uncertainty in the
race. Uncertainty points are given for:
- 2 year old and Maiden
races
- Class 1 – 6
races
- Restricted races
- Number of first start
horses
- Number of horses
who have not run over the distance (considering a variance for form at
a distance close to the races distance e.g. 2000m experience counts for
1800m as 1800m is 10% less than 2000m)
- Number of horses
who have not run on the track
- Number of horses
who not run on a similar track condition
- Number of horses
in the race
- Number of horses
with volatile form (need to look carefully at the form not just their
last placing. Lots of good runs out of the placing)
- Distance races -
more uncertainty points allocated as the distance increases as it is more
difficult to predict the running and untrue pace can significantly impact
your assessment of the race.
I normally identify 1
to 3 races on each card where the uncertainty is low enough for the form assessment
to be more effective.
