Method Detail
Untitled Document
This is a complex horse racing system
and likely to require the assistance of computer based software. However I
do know some people who have been successful with a simpler version of this
system that does not require dedicated software.
The system is based on
the theory that certain factors (weightings) should be applied to 'form variables'
(weight, track performance, barrier, distance performance etc) to predict
the outcome of a race. The trick is to determine which form variables to factor
and by how much.
For example: If I have
4 horses in a race (to make it simple) and using the form guide I rate form
over a distance as follows:
HorseA=80
HorseB=90
HorseC=60
HorseD=100
(don't
pay too much attention to these numbers its a score I apply based on their
form over the distance)
How much do these scores
contribute to the horse's total score for the race e.g if it is half (0.5)
the final score for this 'form variable' would be
HorseA = 40 (0.5 * 80)
Horse B = 45 (0.5 * 90) etc
My approach to this challenge
is to calculate and record the form variables for each race (mainly weekend
races at Metropolitan racecourses) along with the results for each race. Results
include placings from first to last including the lengths of separation. I
feed this information into the computer software to determine what factors
would have to be applied to the form variables to provide me with the correct
placings in the race. There is usually many successful factor combinations
for each race.
The computer software
then analyses these factor combinations against successful combinations from
other races and attempts to identify patterns (trends) amongst the form variables.
For example at certain tracks, with heavier going certain barriers tend to
produce more winners.
The key challenge with
this approach is when a horse faces an extraordinary circumstance in a race,
which caused them to finish back in the field. Initially I did not concern
myself with these events. However now I record a seperate set of history which
omitts these horses from the selection analysis and the results (ie the learning
system ignored they ever ran). As a result the predictions are slightly more
consistent.
I hope this has not confused
you too much and is of some use.
