Method Detail
Untitled Document
Here are some betting tips based on an approach that has worked solidly for me now for over 5 years. Establish a standard method
for race selection, horse selection and your wagering amount and record all
your selections while applying this method. Whatever your method, it should
have sound reasoning behind how it selects winners.
Track the performance
of your selections using this method over a period of time (at least 6 months).
I used to use a spreadsheet for tracking but now I use the GTO to do this.
If it is not showing a
profit, consider what information you may not be capturing that could be impacting
your method's performance. Make sure that you have clear rationale to support
any changes that you make, don't tinker with your method without sound
reasoning for changing it. If you are not seeing
an improvement over time (i.e. greater percentage of winners or greater profit
from investment) then you may have to rethink the method entirely.
When trying to understand
why my method did not perform well in a race I review the race and try to
identify any mishaps in the running or unconsidered factors (e.g. horses checked,
significant track bias) that may have influenced the outcome of the race.
I then run some tests. I try and quantify these other factors and apply them
to my method to see if it produces more accurate results. If I am successful
in identifying a factor(s) that is not used in my method, I test it in future
race assessments. If it improves the success of my method over a period of
time I conclude it is an influential factor and it is adopted into my method.
As a result of this review I have changed my method several times by adopting
new factors into my method.
I also assess the other
two aspects of the method, race selection and the wagering amount. I use my
own selection performance history to identify patterns where I have had more
success. Through this analysis of my own form I noted that I am more consistent
with winning selections in shorter races. As a result I concentrate on races
with distances of up to 1400 metres. This makes sense to me because I often
get frustrated by trying to work out how distance races will run.
I continue to review my
wagering amount by considering what rationale to apply to achieve the best
return. My view here is to base your investment amount on your confidence
in the runner which tends to relate to its chance of winning.
Each time you change your
approach note it against your history and monitor any effect it may have on
your performance.
