The recent focus on winning punters in the press has gone some way to highlight the fact that there are a vast number of smart form experts around. The profit leader boards at theGreatTipOff.com have gone even further, highlighting proofed results of betting knowledge from punters who are confident enough to share their selections, analysis and comments with the public. The decision to share their knowledge often comes under scutiny from wary punters who question the rationale behind the actions of these proven form experts. Comments like "Why would you share your knowledge? It will only drive the price down. If you are that good why don't you keep it to yourself and bet on your own tips". Surely the answer to this monotonous rant is "Why not do both?". Surely the punter can get his or her bets on before posting their betting packages for sale on race day. Or they may even choose to start a Daily Punters Club where the punter bets behind them as they place their bets. Furthermore, with these smart punters' tips in the public domain for all to see, the ongoing rant of skeptics who claim that punters never win is extinguished for good.
The 12 month profit leader board for horse racing tipsters shows an astute bunch of media form experts and punters who have certainly earned the right to class themselves as smart punters.
Getting double digit profits across a month or a quarter of a year is an outstanding feat in itself. To achieve it over 12 months is a very special effort indeed and one that is well worth taking notice of if you are a punter looking for the good oil on race day. We drew the line at a minimum of 20 wins to find Mitchell Hamilton from the Daily Telegraph at the top of the pack with 23% win profit on turnover including 40 wins from 129 tips. The top punter in this list, Logan89 is just behind him on 20% win profit including 59 wins from 227 selections.
The two media tipsters on 15% win profit have posted an enormous amount to tips over the past 12 months. Tony Thomas, who's tips appear in the Daily Telegraph's horse racing lift out on race day, has recorded 91 wins from his 414 selections with a very impressive average win price of $5.25. Cameron Happ from Radio Sports National deserves similar praise. He has posted 123 winners from 424 selections with an average win price of $3.97. To give you an idea of the value that these two blokes have delivered to punters in this time, betting on each of their tips with $100 win bets would have landed you $6,210 extra cash from Thomas' selections and $6,360 from Happ's best bets. Not bad tax free cash to tag on to the end of the weekly pay cheque.
Russell Leonard from SKY Racing comes in next on 11% win profit followed by one of the most impressive tipsters in the Tip Market at present, ProPunter. In addition to ProPunter's double digit profit over the past 12 months he has posted 64% win profit from 29 wins over the past 3 months and sits as the highest profit maker over the past 30 days with eight wins from 53 tips for a massive 219% win profit with an average win price of $20.74.
Punters no longer have to guess which tipsters are actually making cash for punters with live up to date tipping statistics like these. The good news is that all these tipsters' tips are available in the Horse Racing Tip Market every day of the week.
We have spoken many times about value punters and their ability to assess each horse's chance of winning in a race to assist their efforts to identify bookmakers who offer prices greater than a horse's real chance of winning. Or if they are laying the horse, betting exchanges where the lay price is way lower than it's real lay price. For those who have an aptitude and time available to assess a race field, the opportunities are endless. But for the average punter it is pretty much an impossible task.
First of all the value punter needs to find time. A lot of time. Even with the assistance of computer software there is still a lot of work to do to ensure the valuation system continues to learn as factors impacting the outcomes of a race change. If the punter has the money to spend on data feeds he or she will save themselves some time. Assuming the detail is sufficient, the computer will take the form feeds and run them through the latest version of the algorithm spitting out the ratings based on past form. These results will then need to be run through the race day assessment which considers factors that specifically relate to the race being assessed: track bias, speed maps, barrier positions and jockey to name a few. After the race has run the work continues. The results are plugged back into the algorithm to highlight areas where the valuation system didn't perform as well as it could have. What's missing? What needs to be changed? More work for the punter to get the system calibrated for the next race day assessment.
If you were dizzy reading through that process you have a right to be. Its not easy to do and it requires a lot of dedication, patience and time to get it right. A famous Australian punter and bookie who will have remain nameless is up at around two in the morning to start his analysis so that by nine o'clock he has the key markets assessed ready to punt and set his books accordingly. So is there any way that punters can have a crack at identifying value in a race without having to put in hours of home work like the professional punters do? We have put together the top three indicators of value that punters should look out for when they do the form next.
Deceptively good form
The reality is that most punters don't spend a lot of time reading the form. They are either swayed by popular opinion, news articles, jockeys, trainers and emotional ties to a horse or against others, or they don't have a lot of time to do the form and therefore are looking for quick excuses not to back a horse as they scan the form guide. The simple movements of the market, especially close to race time, can turn some punters off a horse regardless of how it's form reads. These blokes are the ones that think there is a superior being built into market fluctuations so much so that if a horse's price blows out close to start time, the horse is as good as dead.
In each of these instances punters will overlook detail that is not obvious from an initial scan of the form guide. Recent form is a good example. How many times do you see a winner come in at double digit odds where it's recent runs were all well outside a place. However closer analysis shows that the margins weren't that significant or if the margin was a little bigger than you would hope to see, the winner was many classes higher than the field it faced today.
Plenty of excuses
Look close enough and you will find horses that actually have a series of valid excuses for each of their recent runs. Some excuses are pointed out in the betting guide commentary, while others you can identify yourself. Examples include runs in track conditions that don't suit the horse or runs from wide barriers, especially in distances up to 1600 metres. Weight drops are another, however they tend to get a lot of attention from form guide journalists so they are unlikely to slip through the cracks.
Lots against the favourite
When the favourite in the race has more than one key factor against it, there's a good chance that it has been over backed. That means it's price is shorter than it probably should be and therefore other runners are likely to be over the odds. Well over the odds. A classic example of this phenomenon playing out was in the 2011 Cox Plate. The three year old, Helmet was the red hot favourite for the race however it had two significant issues playing against it:
- a three year old had not won the race since Red Anchor in 1984 and that animal was a freak, and
- it had never won past 1600 metres and it was choosing one of the most toughly contested weight-for-age races on the Australian racing calendar to do it in.
Helmet of course didn't run a drum and the $26 rank outsider, Pinker Pinker got up to win the race.
If you've got your own indicators of value click the Contact Us link at the top of the page and email them to us. If we publish it you will receive a $50 free bet.
We are a little bit slow out of the gates this month with the Tipster of the Month award not to say that the efforts of the three award winners was not worth making a noise about.
Applying the ten tip minimum check on all profits made in February the tipster who managed to show the greatest win profit from their selections was the Sydney Morning Herald's Patrick Bartley. Bartley recorded eleven best bet tips as part of his contribution to The Form on Friday's and Saturday's in the SMH, finding five winners. His effort delivered a huge 125% win profit on turnover which translates to $1,375 extra cash in the bank for punters following him with $100 win bets.
Not far away in the runner up position was ProPunter. Highlighting his ability to find value runners in the form guide his 122% win profit came from only five winners out of forty tips. That means average winning odds of $17.72 from his winners in February. The good news for punters is that has continued his good form into March and is regularly posting his midweek and weekend selections in the Tip Market for sale.
Last month's second runner up was ThePuss. He found eight winners from his eighteen tips for a very impressive 93% win profit.
Don't forget you can follow any tipster who's tips are posted at theGreatTipOff.com by clicking the Mail Icon on their tipping home page or clickng the green and white plus in the Tip Market