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  • Saturday, 20 July 2019
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Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 6 April 2019

Tagged: Saturday Racing

Class rise far too steep

This week we identify the pitfalls of backing runners who jump sharply in grade following a stirring win. 

The selections featured below have both been installed as false favourites based on recent heroics.

One faces a field stacked with staying experience and quality, whilst the other will experience a rare foray into the acid test of open handicap class. 

Both should be avoided at all costs. Lay. 

 

Rosehill Race 5 #19 Supernova $4.00

Looks smart enough following the good win in lesser grade (Benchmark 78) last start.

This is a huge step up in class to Group 2 level however, and he strikes a field stacked with older staying hard heads.

He is now very well exposed and the mug punters will be all over him after eating up the last start win heroics. 

I doubt most will factor in the massive class rise and quality of this field, where he faces a stiff test to be competitive.

The $4.00 quote is well under the odds and you can expect a significant market drift as we approach start time. Avoid.

 

Toowoomba Race 8 #8 Mishani Hustler $3.80

Slightly left field, however I have found one on the Toowoomba card in the Listed Weetwood Handicap.

This 3yo colt has rarely raced outside his own age group and is another that must face a steep class rise to open handicap grade.

Granted he has been racing very well, but Queensland 3yo restricted class could never be considered a strong formline!

He will go forward from a good draw and can expect plenty of pressure to come from the older types throughout the run.

The mug money investment will be huge, with this being one of the last gallops races of the day (6:05pm).

You can expect the value to be well away from him, especially on the tote boards. 

Bet around him to secure value on the tote, I’ll be with Tyzone. Lay. 

If you prefer to bet on horses rather than lay them, make sure you visit our horse racing tips market which ranks Australia's racing media and punters in order of profit made.

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