30/3/19 Free horse racing tips: Tancred Stakes
High quality stayers clash
Steve HartDistance | 2400m |
Grade | Group 1 |
Track Rating | Heavy 8 |
Prizemoney | $1,500,000 |
Class | WFA |
2018 winner | Almandin ($3) |
This year's edition of the Tancred Stakes sees a typical high quality field of genuine stayers face the starter.
The recent wet conditions in Sydney have made the form lines interesting, with a number of leading chances backing up from the Ranvet last start, which was run on a very testing rain-affected surface.
Expect the track to be in much better condition this week, which will pose a tricky assignment for punters doing their form analysis.
I am willing to risk the odds-on favourite and view this as an excellent opportunity to take him on, considering the "gut-busting" run on the Heavy surface here last start.
Rosehill Track Traits
Rosehill is currently rated a Heavy 8, with the rail out 8m the entire circuit and showers predicted for Saturday.
With plenty of sunshine in Sydney this week, expect the track to race in much better condition than it did on Golden Slipper day.
Any rain on Saturday will be easily drained.
Watch the early races to identify any track bias, as it appeared difficult to make up ground from well back last week.
Racing Market Movers
Avilius is off the map here, heavily backed from an opening quote of $2.15 all the way into $1.60.
This has forced most runners to drift, including second favourite Red Cardinal ($4.20 to $6.00).
Key Runners
#1 Avilius $2.15 > $1.60
Is all class and won impressively here last start in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes.
The mug punters dropped off last start and paid for it dearly, when he atoned for the disapointing effort as an odds-on favorite the start prior.
Expect the public money to be back on him in this and he looks likely to start a popular odds-on elect.
Slight concern the last start effort here on a testing track was a "gut-buster" and although his prospects are still bright, the price is pure poison ($1.60).
Certainly prefer to be against the public money on this occasion. Bet around.
.@godolphin's Avilius has taken out the G1 Ranvet Stakes @rosehillgardens in a thrilling race. pic.twitter.com/MVcRcihtoQ
— Sky Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 23, 2019
#3 Red Cardinal $4.20 > $6.00
Is flying this time in following the first-up demolition job here in the Parramatta Cup. He then proved that was no fluke by braining them in the Sky High Stakes at his latest.
The step up to high quality Group 1 level is a concern, however if he maintains this rich vein of form there is no doubt he will be competitive.
Will get well back to near last before running home hard to collar most. Leading chance.
#4 The Taj Mahal $15
Was fancied at odds by a few good judges last time out in the Ranvet, before finishing midfield (6 of 14).
Appears to have struck a race with a lack of speed and he can burn out to lead this field with ease.
He enjoys this distance (4:2-0-0) and with a drying surface on Saturday, he can improve sharply.
Looks the value runner at the current $15. Yes.
#8 Big Duke $11
Just missed in the Manion Cup at this course and distance (2400m) last start, when he ran home hard from well back to grab second.
The last start effort will have him rock hard fit.
He loves the Heavy and would appreciate any track downgrade.
Just needs some tempo and if he gets it, will just keep on running.
#14 Rondinella $15
Arrives with an interesting profile and has been kept safe in early betting ($15).
She was very good at Group 1 level in NZ last start, when placing 3 of 10 over 2000m.
Currently first emergency, however if she gained a start the betting would tell us everything.
Watch betting late.
Of The Others
#10 Yogi can have a huge run in him at times and whilst Group 1 class appears beyond him, don't completely discount him here.
He would need it to develop into a fast run race and if that transpired, he can be running home hard into a place.
Could get out to huge odds.
Best Racing Tips
1st Red Cardinal
2nd Taj Mahal
3rd Avilius
4th Yogi
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