Feb 01, 2019 10:13 AM
Author: James Beeson
First up brilliance the key
||3yo SW + P
||Cliff's Edge ($7.00)
The Manfred Stakes attracts a mix of stayers and other horses more suited to the distance, with many of these runners resuming for their first-up assignment.
I am with one that has a quality first-up record and is also suited at the distance.
That is not to say that the classy staying types won't run well however.
Watch betting late for any significant support amongst the first-up brigade, and bet accordingly.
Caulfield Track Traits
Caulfield is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out a massive 9m the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.
With the rail in this position, expect there to be a distinct advantage for those racing close to and on speed. Those who sit well back and sweep wide are set to struggle.
Racing Market Movers
There have been a number of moves here in early betting.
Fundamentalist has come in for support ($11 into $6.50), with Tin Hat also fancied and cut from $3.90 to $3.20.
Poised To Strike is on the drift, $4.20 out to $4.60, while Extra Brut has also softened out to $16 from $12 openers.
#1 Ringerdingding $6.50
Has won his past two and now carries a big boom.
This may be slightly short of his best distance range, however it would not surprise to see him run well on fresh legs.
Slight concern with the rail out so far. Expect him to settle off the pace which will not be ideal under these circumstances.
He will need luck to find a position before running on late.
At the current price in betting ($6.50), I would prefer others. No.
#2 Extra Brut $12 > $16
Is dripping in class and another that prefers it longer, right out to the Victoria Derby trip which he won.
Clearly this will be a challenge first-up, where he is likely to need the run and further ground.
He is highly talented and if the money came late on the exchanges, I could certainly entertain. Watch betting late.
#4 Ranier $6
Could start shorter than the current quote and if the rider finds cover just in behind the leaders, there is no doubt he will be in the finish.
He has won his past two and has good enough stats to perform first-up (2:0-2-0).
With Dunn in the saddle, I am confident he can overcome the tricky draw in gate 8 and be the one grabbing them all late. Goes on top.
#9 Poised To Strike $4.20 > $4.60
Is a last start winner in benchmark grade and will face a sharp rise in class for this.
He was ultra impressive at Flemington after going to the line under a hold and simply braining them.
No doubt the stable confidence is high to be entered here, when much easier assignments are on offer. Leading chance.
#10 Tin Hat $3.90 > $3.20
Could not have been more impressive at his past two when winning both at the Sandown circuit.
He is another that has to step up sharply in class, however also deserves his chance.
Will carve across to lead from an outside draw (gate 10) and is likely to have the fitness edge on most of these.
Could be too tough for the first up-brigade. Yes.
#11 Fundamentalist $11 > $6.50
Has the good first-up record (3:1-1-0) and a handy weight pull against most of these, however bridging the class gap here looks a stretch for her.
Aquis Farm have bitten off far more than they can chew here and more than happy to risk. No
Of The Others
Best Racing Tips
2nd Extra Brut
3rd Tin Hat
4th Poised To Strike
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